It's the day we've all been waiting for! The first and maybe the only live debate between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President and Democratic anointed candidate Kamala Harris takes place this evening, an event that we have been waiting for with bated breath. This is still an election that looks like it will be decided by a very narrow margin, probably a few thousand votes in a half-dozen states, so the candidates will be looking to grab every advantage they can, and that makes this debate a key event.

Both candidates are hoping to walk away with a win. Both candidates are going to try to avoid any game-changing gaffes. Both are going to try to sell themselves as being good for what ails us, the American people. One of them has a track record as president during a time when, by and large, things were humming along pretty well — until COVID. One of them has a track record as a second banana in one of the most incompetent presidential administrations in the history of the republic. 

So, who has the edge? What are each candidate's strengths and weaknesses? And who is likely to emerge as the winner?

Trump in his third run for the presidency is a well-defined, albeit polarizing figure, for voters. Some allies want to see him focus on policy and avoid personal attacks, holding out hope he can demonstrate presidential behavior and ease concerns among voters over returning the former president and now convicted felon to power.

For Harris, the challenge is to address concerns from voters who say they don’t know enough about her or her policies, and for those skeptical President Joe Biden’s No. 2 can be an agent for change. Millions of Americans are expected to watch, making the debate her best chance to define her image.

This statement is key: The American people know who Donald Trump is. They know what he's for and against. They had four years to become familiar with him.

Kamala Harris, not so much. But although she has been, for just shy of four years, essentially a spare part, she is tied inextricably to the Biden presidency, and in the debate this evening, expect to see her run away from that like a cat with its tail alight.

Both candidates must pull out a win if they are to have any hope of taking the election in November, but Donald Trump's task is the easier one, and that is for sure and for certain. Here's why:

Harris wants to come off as a highly competent, political moderate adept at managing someone as impulsive as Trump. Trump aims to cast Harris as too liberal and tie her to unpopular administration policies, while his aides hope he avoids attacks over her intellect and identity that have repelled some voters.

Look at that first sentence: "Harris wants to come off as a highly competent, politically moderate adept at managing someone as impulsive as Trump." That's going to be an uphill climb for her, as she is neither competent nor politically moderate, and she hasn't proven herself to be adept at, well, anything. She has failed upwards nearly to the top, but this last step she has to take on her own, and she's not likely to make it.

Trump, on the other hand, just has to be the opponent he was in the earlier debate that sent Joe Biden to the showers. Stay focused, avoid excessive snark, hammer her on the issues, not what she is saying but what she has said before. The former president's task is simple: The American people say they don't know enough about Kamala Harris or her policies. Inform them. Let them know what she really thinks, and bring examples.

That's how Trump wins. And, barring some horrible unforeseen gaffe or cluster foul-up, a clear win in this debate will grease the skids for the winning candidate, maybe all the way into the Oval Office.

Previously on RedState: WATCH: CNN Just Savages Kamala Harris on Air Over Her Insane Record Before Debate 

It's Tuesday and It's All on the Line: How Trump 'Can Win the Debate
and the Election in Two Minutes'

MSNBC Simp Joy Reid Says 'Bad***' Harris Needs to Beat
'Fascistic' Trump 'Like He Stole Something'

It's only a few hours away now. As of this writing, this is the only debate scheduled. Former President Trump has pushed for more debates, but the Harris campaign has deferred any decisions until after this first debate, which in and of itself speaks volumes.

As you watch the debate — and we'll be liveblogging that event right here at RedState — bear this one thing in mind: Only one of the two candidates will be saying what he really thinks. The other will be defending and deflecting not only her previous policy statements but also her involvement in the least competent presidential administration in the history of the republic, and that's liable to sink like a lead duck.