Fewer police, more criminals – it all adds up.

The majority of Americans agree – crime is on the rise. A recent survey from Rasmussen Reports showed that about 60% of Americans believe violent crime is getting worse. But there’s more to the story than just rising crime rates; there are fewer police officers and a decline in arrests, as well.

Crime Climbs When Policing Plummets

Last November, a Gallup survey showed that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats believed crime was rising. Combine that with the recent Rasmussen report, and the outlook seems bleak. Of course, less policing means more opportunities for criminals to commit crimes.

There are several reasons for a drop in police officers across the nation. Some of it has to do with retirement, and more law enforcement officials are resigning than in recent years. Recruitment is down, which can be attributed to several factors, including low pay, long hours, and the negative view people and authority figures have of the police in general. Another huge factor is the failed “defund the police” movement. In just a couple of years, politicians realized that defunding those who serve and protect was probably not the best idea.

A decline in policing also means fewer arrests, as FBI data shows. From 1996 to 2019, in cities with a population of more than one million people, the arrest rate reported for violent crime averaged 41%. But in 2022, just two years after the movement to defund the police got going, arrest rates dropped by half, down to 20.3%. In the 24 years before the COVID-19 pandemic, the lowest was 32.6%. Arrest rates for violent crimes fell dramatically, as RealClearWire explained:

• Murder fell by 37%
• Rape fell by 58%
• Robbery fell by 50%
• Aggravated Assaults fell by 54%

But this is only part of the picture. In recent years, departments have had to make some drastic changes to meet budget cuts and account for the loss of officers. In cities such as Charlottesville, Virginia, and Olympia, Washington, law enforcement has stopped responding to non-emergency 911 calls. If somebody has a non-emergency, even if a person’s car is stolen, the victim will have to go to the police department and file a report.

However, the data provided by the FBI only includes reported crimes. Not all cities report to the agency, so the stats don’t display the real numbers. “[T]he rate at which crimes have gone unreported has increased,” explained RealClearWire. “Thus, the effective drop in the arrest rate for crime is even greater than these already stark numbers show. Since property crimes are reported less often than violent crimes, the effective arrest rate for all property crimes or all larceny thefts is extremely low.” Furthermore:

“If you look at arrests as a percentage of all crime (reported and unreported), in these large cities only 8% of all violent crime and 1% of all property crime results in an arrest.”

Law enforcement is facing a crisis, fueling a surge in crime. The system is starting to buckle. Departments are so overwhelmed that non-violent and non-emergency calls are not always addressed. Criminals are taking advantage of this breakdown, leaving communities exposed while crime thrives.