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On Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines host the Texas Longhorns in a fascinating non-conference battle at The Big House.
The defending champs are more than a touchdown underdog at home to the Longhorns after seeing Texas favored by just a field goal for most of the summer in the look-ahead markets.
What insight can we glean from these team’s Week 1 performances? And where does the betting value lie in this matchup? Let’s dive in.
Texas vs. Michigan odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | -7.5 (+100) | -275 | o42.5 (-110) |
| Michigan | +7.5 (-120) | +220 | u42.5 (-110) |
When Texas has the ball
It’s difficult to imagine Texas successfully running the ball in this matchup without the services of star back C.J. Baxter, who suffered a season-ending injury before the start of the year.
Michigan has the best defensive line in the country, anchored by future NFL starters Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant.
If the Wolverines can consistently force the Longhorns into passing downs, this game could come down to how Quinn Ewers handles a relentless Michigan blitz under new defensive coordinator Wink Martindale.
Ewers had just a 64.6 PFF passing grade against the blitz last year, which ranked 77th out of 153 qualified passers.
Texas has a handful of dynamic pass-catching options, but Ewers is still building chemistry with a new group filled with transfers.
The Wolverines are integrating some new starters in the secondary, but the presence of lockdown cornerback Will Johnson provides stability in the group.
When Michigan has the ball
Davis Warren had a solid, if uninspiring, debut as Michigan’s starting quarterback.
He had just one turnover-worthy play against Fresno State last week and got rid of the ball quickly, averaging just 2.17 seconds per attempt. He also only took one sack despite being pressured seven times.
Colston Loveland should have a considerable role again this week after catching eight passes for 87 yards and a touchdown.
He’s a chain-moving tight end who provides a reliable option over the middle of the field.
The Longhorns lost star defensive linemen Byron Murphy II and T’Vondre Sweat to the NFL, and their absence was notable last week as Colorado State had a 53% success rate on running plays, above the national average.
Michigan’s offensive line is still coming together with five new starters, but the Wolverines should find some success on the ground.
Kalel Mullings is expected to take on a significant role moving forward after averaging 4.3 yards after contact last week.
Alex Orji should also see a substantial role in the read-option game after a quiet Week 1.
Texas vs. Michigan pick
Michigan has a 41-3 record dating to Week 1 of the 2021 season and the second-longest home win streak in the country, with 23 straight wins at The Big House.
However, the betting market expects this to be the end of the line.
Catching +7.5 at home, Michigan hasn’t been a home underdog of this size since a 2019 game against Ohio State.
Action Network’s Colin Wilson makes the spread for this game Texas -3, the line available for most of the summer in the look-ahead markets.
Betting on the NFL?
The market has overreacted to Week 1 results, and I’m backing the Wolverines in a rare spot as home dogs on Saturday.
Best bet: Michigan +7.5 (+100, FanDuel)
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