The Chinese military’s simulated attacks on Taiwan in recent days included mock missile strikes and joint operations, revealing details of Beijing’s plan to reach a promised goal of taking over the island democracy, military affairs analysts said.

More than 20 warships and dozens of bombers and other warplanes took part in war games encircling Taiwan three days after pro-independence President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration in Taipei.

In his speech on May 20, the Taiwanese president said his administration marks 28 years of democratic rule and signals to the world that “Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation in which sovereignty lies in the hands of the people.”

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China’s People’s Liberation Army kicked off the largest war games in two years on Thursday. Chinese state media reported that the games were intended as a punitive action against the new Taiwanese president.

Mr. Lai “seriously challenged the one-China principle … pushing our compatriots in Taiwan into a perilous situation of war and danger,” Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said Friday.

“Every time ‘Taiwan independence’ provokes us, we will push our countermeasures one step further until the complete reunification of the motherland is achieved,” he said.

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SEE ALSO: House lawmakers arrive in Taiwan amid Chinese government’s threats

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State-run media showed video footage of the exercises, named Joint Sword2024A. Accompanied by stirring martial music, the video included PLA troops streaming out of a building to take up battle stations and fighter jets taking off.

China Central Television reported that PLA sailors warned Taiwanese navy counterparts against “resisting reunification by force.”

The military, announcing practice for seizing territory, posted a graphic showing missiles flying toward key targets in Taiwan and declaring that the strikes would “cut off the blood vessels for Taiwan independence.”

“The drills also serve as a strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces,” stated Chinamil.com, China’s official online military outlet.

A map published in one Chinese outlet showed five PLA operating areas in a circle around the island.

Military affairs analysts said the exercises were larger than those in August 2022 to protest House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

No missile firings were reported during the most recent exercises. In 2022, several ballistic missiles were fired in test launches.

Coordinated operations

On Thursday, the Taiwanese National Defense Ministry tracked 49 PLA aircraft, 19 PLA warships and seven coast guard vessels. Thirty-five of the aircraft crossed the median line down the middle of the Taiwan Strait.

By Friday, 62 aircraft and 27 warships were operating around the island, with 47 aircraft crossing the median line.

The warships included guided missile-firing destroyers, frigates and patrol boats. Aircraft included H-6 bombers, J-16 and J-10 fighters and airborne warning and control planes.

Missile forces in areas near Taiwan were activated as part of the exercises. They included units armed with short-range DF-15 and DF-11 missiles, according to the OSINT defense blog.

The PLA described the exercises as “closing in combat patrols” around Taiwan using joint forces “inside and outside the island chain,” a geopolitical designation the Chinese military uses to describe islands at various distances from its coast.

Senior Capt. Li Xi, a spokesman for the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command, said in a statement Friday that the exercise tested the command’s ability to jointly take control of the battlefield, launch joint strikes and seize control of specific areas.

The military drills also coordinated warships and warplanes, “sea assault and land attack,” and joint strike systems.

Units along the coast in Fujian province prepared long-range multiple rocket launch systems that conducted mock strikes on Friday, as seen in a video made public by the PLA.

“We, the rocket artillery forces, can strike far, accurately and fiercely. We can deliver full-domain, round-the-clock precision strikes on targets,” state media quoted Jiang Xiaodong, a brigade officer, as saying.

Invasion plans hinted

Retired U.S. Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific Fleet intelligence director, said the latest exercises were shorter than the 2023 version of Joint Sword, indicating the PLA is honing its warfighting skills and sharpening its command and control with the aim of using military power in a shorter, more concentrated time frame.

“In essence, the PLA is fulfilling their stated goal of being able to conduct a ‘short, sharp war,’” Capt. Fanell said.

Naming specific training goals and elements such as “joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets” also supports plans for waging short but intense conflict, he said.

Capt. Fanell said the sea closure areas during the latest exercises were much closer to Taiwan than the 2023 exercises. That signals the PLA is “testing to see just how close they will be able to actually operate off Taiwan before generating a kinetic response from Taiwan, Japan or the U.S.,” he said.

“This is invaluable information to obtain and will provide Beijing a great advantage if or when they decide to conduct an invasion,” Capt. Fanell said.

Capt. Fanell said U.S. forces need to increase their military power in the region by adding a second aircraft carrier strike group. A national military mobilization program should also be launched to rapidly build new weapons to deter China.

“Make no mistake: A PLA invasion of Taiwan will very likely include an attack on American forces in Asia,” he said.

U.S. response

The Pentagon said on Saturday it has no plans to add forces in the region.

“The [Defense] Department remains confident in current U.S. force posture and operations in the Indo-Pacific region with our allies and partners to safeguard peace, stability and our national security,” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said.

Instead of condemning the war games, Gen. Ryder said the drills are closely monitored and repeated that the U.S. “One China” policy remains in place. The policy acknowledges that Taiwan is part of China but does not recognize Beijing’s sovereignty over the island.

The State Department said it is “deeply concerned” by the exercises and urged Beijing to “act with restraint.”

“Using a normal, routine, and democratic transition as an excuse for military provocations risks escalation and erodes longstanding norms that for decades have maintained peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which is critical for regional and global security and prosperity and a matter of international concern,” the department said in a statement Saturday.

On Capitol Hill, the top members of the House Select Committee on the CCP criticized the PLA exercises as a brazen attempt to intimidate Taiwan after its elections.

The war games are “completely unacceptable,” said Reps. John Moolenaar, Michigan Republican and committee chairman, and Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois, the panel’s ranking Democrat.

“This action only reinforces the need for the U.S. to take concrete steps to help strengthen Taiwan’s defenses and deter the CCP’s aggression,” the lawmakers stated.

Carl Schuster, a retired Navy captain and former military intelligence officer, said the exercises demonstrate increasing Chinese military capabilities for joint warfare operations beyond Taiwan and capabilities for attacking the island from multiple directions.

Plans for the exercises probably began after the August 2022 war games and “as such, represents not only an examination and rehearsal of at least one component of Beijing’s campaign plan for conquering Taiwan,” he said.

“The Central Military Commission is examining how best to achieve that objective: isolation, conquest or a combination of both.”

New Chinese gray area

Retired Army Col. Larry Wortzel, a former military attache in Beijing, said the exercises emphasized Taiwan’s vulnerability to military strikes from the western Pacific against the island’s east coast.

Operations at that location are intended to signal to the U.S. military that the PLA is preparing to attack intervening U.S. forces.

“It is very likely that there will be more exercises, and some will probably involve missile firings and the PLA air force,” Col. Wortzel said. He said an invasion before the November U.S. presidential election is unlikely.

“The Chinese Communist Party leadership also understands that the more exercises that they run, the more likely it is that there could be bipartisan agreement in the U.S. Congress for increased arms sales to Taiwan and to shore up the Pacific Defense Initiative,” he said.

Capt. Schuster said using Chinese coast guard ships was a new “gray zone” warfare tactic that made the exercises more complex than earlier drills.

Coast guard ships could isolate outlying Taiwanese islands without committing an act of war by claiming they were operating under Chinese law.

Still, the use of the coast guard shows that those vessels are now integrated into PLA theater-level operations, he said.

Political posturing

Capt. Schuster said the war games are setting a pattern for normal military activities designed to make surprise attacks more difficult to detect.

“Increasing military alert conditions and mobilizing defenses against a potential attack are expensive and disruptive; raising that profile increases the chance the [Taiwan] military and political leadership will delay the ‘get ready’ decision until it is too late,” Capt. Schuster said.

Politically, the war games signal to Taiwan, the United States and other nations that the PLA can change the fragile status quo around Taiwan at any time.

The exercises demonstrate PLA military advances in joint doctrine and operations and significantly raise the pressure and stress on Taiwan’s political leaders and military forces, Capt. Schuster said.

Instead of an invasion, the PLA could incrementally isolate Taiwan’s coastal islands or declare a “maritime exclusion zone” that would be less provocative but similar to a blockade, which would be an act of war, he said.

In the coming weeks, the PLA could conduct aircraft carrier operations around Taiwan along with marine amphibious drills and a large landing exercise, Capt. Schuster said.

Navy live fire and anti-submarine warfare exercises also are possible, he said.

Kerry K. Gershaneck, a retired military officer with decades of experience in China affairs, said the drills were a “classic political warfare master stroke” that combined a well-orchestrated campaign of military intimidation with internal political subversion.

“This campaign is aimed at Taiwan’s newly inaugurated Lai administration, of course, but the primary target is likely the Biden administration,” said Mr. Gershaneck, an Asia-based hybrid warfare expert with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

“By intimidating the Biden administration, Beijing is using lessons learned from the Hamas-Israel war in hopes to isolate Taiwan and demoralize it to the point that the Chinese Communist Party can easily annex it,” he said.

Beijing’s options

Capt. Fanell said the drills appeared to debut a new command and control system for joint warfare identified in state media as a “joint operational system.”

A Chinese officer aboard a frigate said the warship was operating under complex scenarios and backed by “the theater command’s joint operational system.”

The system was used for vessel-to-aircraft joint anti-submarine operations and to control key areas of waters to the southwest of the island of Taiwan, the officer told the state-run Global Times.

The warship linked its communications with naval and air forces operating east of Taiwan and shared target information for simulated joint strikes and “seizing control of major lanes,” the officer said.

The latest Joint Sword exercise is the second of its kind. The first was in April 2023, after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s transit visit through the United States.

Last week’s exercises covered wider regions than earlier drills, including near the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, close to the Chinese coast.

PLA military forces also practiced a “new model” of blockading Taiwan to prevent vital energy imports, the Global Times reported.

Although the war games appeared to end Friday, state media announced that the PLA would carry out segments B, C and D of Joint Sword 2024A if Taiwan conducts provocations.

The Taiwanese National Defense Ministry stated on X at the start of the war games that war has no winners.

“In the face of the CCP’s military drills, what we always believe and uphold is democracy and freedom,” the post said. “Regional stability is the universal goal, and we will continue to protect our beautiful homeland.”

Capt. Fanell said the United States must ensure Beijing understands that it would pay a heavy cost for an invasion of Taiwan.

“It may seem escalatory to some, but the fact is the [People’s Republic of China] has been escalating conventional and nuclear forces for 25 years,” he said. “It is time for America to stand up and lead the fight against the illegitimate communist regime in the PRC.”