With a close race looming in November, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is investing big dollars in the global hunt for votes from Americans living abroad. But will these votes be protected from the vulnerabilities of the overseas voting system?

In an announcement last month, the DNC revealed a $300,000 commitment to Democrats Abroad, the “official Democratic Party arm” in charge of “mobilizing the overseas vote,” according to its website. 

DNC Executive Director Roger Lau explained the decision in a statement, saying “[t]his election will be won on the margins, and every single vote counts.” He claimed this “innovative investment in Democrats Abroad” aims to “register and earn the votes of the nearly 9 million Americans living and serving overseas,” and that “Democrats are leaving nothing to chance.”

That’s a huge number of voters, and it contradicts a 2022 analysis from the Defense Department’s Federal Voting Assistance Program (FVAP), which claims that “of the estimated 4.4 million” U.S. citizens living overseas, only about 2.8 million of them are of voting age.

In a November 2023 study from The Association of Americans Resident Overseas (AARO), Doris L. Speer, AARO president, says her organization “found six estimates of the number of Americans living overseas, some widely divergent.” Specifically addressing the claim that 9 million citizens live abroad, Speer notes the number is based on a State Department estimate that “is said to count all Americans outside the U.S. for any reason, including tourists, not Americans living abroad” (emphasis original).

According to Speer, the 9 million estimate can be traced back to the State Department’s Bureau of Consular Affairs’ one-page brochure, which states the 9 million number “without explanation,” as Speer notes.” (Writing on behalf of the Democrats Abroad Press Team, Global Press Secretary Sharon Manitta confirmed in an email: “That number [9 million] comes from the State Department of Consular Affairs.”)

“We cannot determine the basis on which State has made this estimation,” Speer notes in the report. However, “according to the Defense Department’s Federal Voting Assistance Program,” she continues, “the Department of State’s estimates of the number of overseas civilians ‘are used for contingency operations and appropriately result in an overestimation.’” (Speer confirmed over the phone that the quote she references here has since been removed from the cited FAQ section in the corresponding FVAP analysis.)

‘No Stone Left Unturned‘

Right out of the gate, therefore, there are questions about the DNC’s strategy and Lau’s announcement that the DNC wants to aid in “register[ing] and earn[ing] the votes of the nearly 9 million Americans living and serving overseas.” 

As a correspondent for the election integrity group Michigan Fair Elections (MFE), I talked with MFE Chair and Founder Patrice Johnson, who told me her theory: “They appear to be citing 9 million to set expectations and nurture public acceptance of that number, despite the federal government indicating only 2.8 million voting-aged citizens reside overseas,” she suggests. 

However, even though the DNC may have reported an overestimate in their funding announcement, their $300,000 investment and official statements in connection with the award are effectively telling Americans to be ready: Expect a flood of new UOCAVA votes and expect them to tend Democrat. 

The Uniformed and Overseas Citizens Absentee Voting Act (UOCAVA) “requires that the states and territories allow certain groups of citizens to register and vote absentee in elections for Federal offices.” These voters are divided into three groups: military personnel, their dependent families, and U.S. citizens residing outside the United States.

Many might presume most of these overseas voters are primarily military personnel and their families. However, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, reporting [p. 201] to the 118th Congress, found that in 2022, 34 percent of UOCAVA ballots were transmitted to uniformed services while 64 percent were to overseas citizens. In 2014, the ratio of transmitted ballots was more evenly split between military (46.2 percent) and overseas citizens (51.6 percent).

Martha McDevitt-Pugh, chair of Democrats Abroad, reportedly told CBS News last month that “since Mr. Biden withdrew his candidacy on July 21, there’s been a 100% increase in Americans abroad registering to vote and requesting their ballot through their votefrombroad.org website.” McDevitt-Pugh reportedly added that, while “political leanings vary from country to country, but they tend to lean Democratic for most.” According to the FVAP, there are multiple countries with large numbers of adult U.S. citizens, including Canada (605,697), the United Kingdom (298,268), and France (152,619).

“This election will be won on the margins, and with only three months until the election, every vote matters,” the DNC investment announcement states. “In what will be a close election, the DNC is leaving no stone left unturned to ensure that Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States.”

Vulnerable Votes

Setting aside the question of precisely how many voting-age citizens are living overseas, the UOCAVA system presents election security challenges.

Some states let UOCAVA voters vote electronically, despite the security concerns of online voting. “It’s impossible to verify the identity or even the human existence of online nonmilitary registrations using regular email systems, yet 31 states are accepting voter registrations and electronic ballots,” Johnson said in an internal report generated by MFE.

“Many” states also “allow citizens who have never resided in the U.S.” to vote using a parent’s address, according to FVAP. The lax requirements lead activists like Johnson to fear that UOCAVA could “open[] the door to unlimited foreign voting with no verification of residency or citizenship.”

Kristine Christlieb is a senior correspondent for Michigan Fair Elections.