Most polls indicate that Vice President Kamala Harris is leading in the key swing states that will determine the election, but two Southern state pollsters are presenting a different picture, showing former President Donald Trump with a significant lead.

Polls conducted by InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar in seven battleground states suggest that Trump is on track to secure 296 electoral votes, indicating that Harris may have already lost her momentum, the New York Post reported.

Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage, based in Georgia, found Trump leading in Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, and trailing by just 0.4% in Georgia.

He highlighted that both he and Robert Calahy of Trafalgar—who covered Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—were among the top three pollsters in the 2016 and 2020 election cycles. Their methodology, he explained, enables them to capture some Trump votes that other pollsters might miss.

All of Trump’s leads are narrow and within the margin of error, meaning the states could go either way on Election Day. But Towery thinks that Harris is stalling now that the novelty of her replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee has worn off.

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“The momentum that we were seeing after the Democratic National Convention has sort of come to an end,” Towery said, adding that the surges in Democratic enthusiasm he saw in polls after Harris replaced Biden have also slowed, and are now “close to parity” with Trump and GOP voters.

The “turnout election” will be shaped heavily by next week’s “make or break” presidential debate, Towery said.

If the former president provides the country with a “realistic” version of himself, “this could become a real turning point like the Carter-Reagan debate that basically sealed the deal” in 1980, Towery predicted.

South Carolina-based Calahy agreed on the debate’s significance. He noted that the former president might make a statement that “overshadows” the rest of the event, but emphasized that Harris has “the most to lose” and is in a “no-win situation.”

Calahy observes that “conservative Democrats” are shifting to Trump’s side in greater numbers than those crossing over to Harris, and he also suggests that her reluctance to participate in interviews has left the media feeling “ignored” and “angry.”

However, despite favorable polling for Trump, Calahy warns that the “Democratic machine” could reduce his lead by “a point or two.” Consequently, a tight lead in September may not necessarily predict the final outcome, The Post reported.

A senior adviser to Trump’s 2024 campaign said earlier this week that he believes Team Harris is angling for a way out of the Sept. 10 ABC debate with the former president, the only one she has indicated she would participate in.

WATCH:

‘Mind-boggling’: Trump adviser Jason Miller says #Kamala campaign ‘looking for escape hatch to get out of this #debate‘

‘President #Trump is the greatest debater in modern political history, so I think they’re nervous and want a way out’ pic.twitter.com/Wvsv84EF8O

— WorldNetDaily (@worldnetdaily) September 1, 2024

“I think that the Harris campaign is looking for an escape hatch, is looking for a way to get out of this debate,” said Trump campaign senior adviser Jason Miller on “Sunday Morning Futures” on the Fox News Channel. “To be clear, these are the rules that the Democrats wrote. These are the rules we had in place for the CNN debate. Everyone had agreed to the rules, at least informally, with ABC. We have a deal with ABC. ABC has a deal, and ABC is with us all the way on this.”

“But here’s what I think happened. I think the Harris folks started going into debate prep, and now they realize what they’re working with. They realize that they’re in real trouble with Kamala Harris. They also know that President Trump is the greatest debater in modern political history, so I think they’re nervous and want a way out,” he further speculated.

Fox News host Sean Duffy, a former GOP congressman from Wisconsin, asked Miller: “So is your point that Kamala Harris’ team has not confirmed the September 10th debate?”

“Absolutely not,” Miller responded. “And it’s mind-boggling because you would think that they’d want to debate. I mean, the American public does deserve this. But they refuse to accept the terms of the debate which, again, everyone had already agreed to it.