If history is a guide to how the 2024 election will go, President Joe Biden appears to be headed for the dustbin.
That may be the interpretation based on new polling numbers that CNN reported showing Biden as the most unpopular incumbent president at this point in his first term. In stark contrast, former President Donald Trump is polling as the most formidable challenger of the 21st century. Much of it has to do with how Trump has consolidated support better than any general election Republican since their rivals dropped out, polling analyst Harry Enten explained.
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“The one who’s actually getting the highest share after his opponents is actually Donald Trump this time around with 81%,” he said, adding, “This is actually a very strong performance for a non-incumbent after his opponents dropped out” compared to past results for Mitt Romney, Trump in 2020, and Biden today. And while mainstream media outlets have made hay over “protest votes” by Nikki Haley supporters, Enten said losing 20% of a primary vote is “not unusual” and poses no greater threat to Trump than a typical candidate.
“Donald Trump’s actually running historically strong for a non-incumbent in a presidential primary after his opponents dropped out,” he said.
Biden, meanwhile, is doing “weak, weak, weak compared to history” as he circles up just 87% of the Democratic Party vote, the lowest among incumbents since 2000. Former Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Trump all counted 90% or more support among their constituencies at this point in time during their respective campaigns.
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Asked by host Kate Bolduan where former Biden voters who opted for Haley this time around may go, Enten broke down that Biden enjoys an advantage, though a sizable number maintained that they will stick with Trump in the fall. Four years ago, the bloc went for Biden by a 16-point margin; but “jump ahead to 2024 – Donald Trump leads among them by about 4 points, which is actually an improvement for Donald Trump from where he was in 2020,” Enten explained.
The numbers, which came from a New York Times/Sienna poll conducted earlier his month, continue to cast a pall over the president’s reelection campaign as advisors and allies attempt to swat away the disastrous deficit he faces. MSNBC talking heads were dumbfounded after reporting that among independents, 53% said they were more worried that a second Biden term would “weaken democracy” while just 42% said the same about Trump.
“I find it shocking, honestly. I can’t, you know, make sense of that number,” said political contributor Susan Del Percio. “I wish I could. I wish I had some really great insight to it. But I don’t know if it’s an outlier or not because the other numbers with independents and Biden are going in the right direction.”
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