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The Royal Society has made a schoolboy error in its report published last year. The society estimated that the cost of building a “Net Zero” grid in 2040 would be £410 billion.
However, as Net Zero Watch points out, assuming the best-case scenario, the Net Zero grid will cost at least £38 billion per year to build, which totals to around £960 billion – £550 billion more than the Royal Society has calculated.
How did this happen? They used today’s prices to calculate the cost in 15 years’ time. It’s a basic but major “error” which scientists have failed to correct despite being made aware of the problem several months ago.
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Royal Society Report Contains Half-Trillion-Pound Error
The following was originally published by Net Zero Watch on 2 September 2024.
A key report published under the auspices of the Royal Society understated the cost of building a Net Zero electricity grid by half a trillion pounds, according to Net Zero Watch, in a post published today [2 September] on its website.
According to Net Zero Watch director Andrew Montford, the error revolves around how the costs of building wind and solar farms and other equipment will change over the next 25 years. The Royal Society has used Whitehall estimates of the costs for 2040 but has applied them from the start of the build period. Mr. Montford said:
It is simply absurd to use estimated costs for a windfarm in 2040 when calculating the costs of building one today.
Mr. Montford said:
If we assume that costs fall, over 25 years, from the levels seen today to those assumed by the Royal Society, the cost of building the Net Zero grid is around £960 billion rather than the £410 billion claimed by the Royal Society.
Mr. Montford says that there is no doubt about what the Royal Society has done since the basis of the figure they have calculated is clearly stated in the report. However, although the Royal Society author team has been aware of the problem for several months, they have made no correction.
Mr. Montford said:
If the error is corrected, the cost of decarbonising the grid looks unaffordable. £960 billion is £38 billion per year, at a time when we are cutting winter fuel allowance to save less than £2 billion per year. Setting these painful facts out clearly would certainly be politically inconvenient for the Government.
Notes:
- The Royal Society report, entitled Large-scale Electricity Storage was published last year. https://royalsociety.org/news-resources/projects/low-carbon-energy-programme/large-scale-electricity-storage/
- Net Zero Watch published a critique, entitled Costing the Green Grid. https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-papers/costing-the-green-grid
About Net Zero Watch
Net Zero Watch is a campaign group launched and managed by the Global Warming Policy Forum (“GWPF”), a charitable organisation in the UK established in November 2009, just three days after the “Climategate” emails were released. The group scrutinises the UK government’s net zero emissions plans and provides a “clear view of the reality of climate and energy policies.”
Featured image: Large-scale electricity storage, Royal Society
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