For more than 30 years, Senzel Schaefer has called the Democratic Party her political home, consistently voting for the party’s candidates in every primary, midterm and presidential election.

Come Election Day, she’ll break ranks. For Muslim American voters like Schaefer, ending the Israel-Hamas war is a top priority. Unhappy with the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict, Schaefer, an Afghan American tech executive in Northern Virginia, plans to cast her ballot for a third-party candidate.

“For me as an American voter, this is probably the most difficult decision I’m making at this point in time,” she said in an interview.

Schaefer is not alone. The Gaza war, now in its 10th month, has both unified and fractured what has been a traditionally Democratic voting bloc, representing more than 3.5 million Muslim Americans.

While most Muslim voters see the war as their top issue, they’re split over candidates, with large numbers of voters, unhappy with the two major party nominees’ pro-Israel stance, eyeing third-party options.

In an August 25-29 survey conducted by the Council on American Islamic Relations, or CAIR, Vice President Kamala Harris and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, a fierce critic of Israeli policies, received roughly 29% each, with Republican nominee Donald Trump garnering about 11%, followed by two other third-party candidates drawing single digit numbers. More than 16% were undecided.

The findings, echoing earlier assessments of the race, underscore just how much the Gaza war has eroded Muslim support for Democrats.

In 2020, Biden won 65% of Muslim votes. This year, that support crumbled, as more than 700,000 Democratic primary voters, many of them Muslims in swing states, refused to vote for Biden. The so-called uncommitted voters appear largely uncommitted, with most gravitating toward third-party candidates or undecided.

The Institute for Social Policy and Understanding, a Muslim research group that conducted the July survey, dubs them “swing Muslim voters,” winnable with the right policies addressing their concerns about the Gaza conflict.

“Whichever candidate can show they’re going to make the shift in terms of the war in Gaza and getting a cease-fire will have an impact on these Muslim voters and who they vote for,” said Saher Selod, ISPU’s director of research.

With the election less than three months away, who the “swing Muslim voters” will ultimately back remains uncertain.

Harris, viewed as more sympathetic to the Palestinians than Biden, holds a greater edge among Muslim voters than the president.

But activists want more. They’re pushing for a cease-fire and an arms embargo on Israel.

“I don’t know if sympathy gains votes. I think it’s policy that gains votes,” said Roman Fritz, an uncommitted delegate from Wisconsin.

Without a cease-fire and an arms embargo, Fritz said, Harris is “not going to get the votes she needs to win in November.”

Harris opposes an arms embargo but supports a deal for a cease-fire and hostage release.

“Vice President Harris supports the deals currently on the table for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza and for the release of hostages,” a Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson said in response to a VOA query.

In recent months, the Harris campaign has stepped up outreach to the community. Last week, campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez met with Arab and Jewish leaders in Michigan.

The spokesperson said Harris “will continue to meet with leaders from Palestinian, Muslim, Israeli and Jewish communities, as she has throughout her vice presidency.”

Trump’s engagement with the Muslim community appears more limited. A former Trump administration official and a Trump son-in-law met Arab leaders in Michigan earlier this year.

Spokespeople for the Trump-Vance campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Harris supporter

For Arif Khan, an IT program manager in Northern Virginia, the presidential election presents a “lesser-of-two-evils choice.”

The Gaza conflict deepened his political engagement, he said, spurring him to attend pro-Palestinian rallies with his two teenage sons.

“I don't remember ever getting so involved in different kinds of protests,” he said in an interview.

He said he sought a candidate willing to pressure Israel to end what he called “genocide,” an accusation Israel denies.

Lacking that option, Khan said he’ll vote for Harris in November, viewing her as “less radical” than Biden in her support of Israel and more open to a resolution than Trump.

“I believe Kamala Harris would support a more balanced approach,” Khan said.

Trump supporter

Others see little difference between Harris and Trump on Israel. Sami Khan, a Washington-area restaurateur, considers the Gaza war “the biggest issue” for Muslim voters but expects little change in U.S. policy regardless of the outcome of the election.

“We don't really have a lot of choice here,” said Khan, no relation to Arif Khan. “No matter who wins the election, this is probably the government’s policy to do what they’re doing.”

With U.S. policy on Israel unlikely to change, Khan said he’ll vote for Trump, praising his stewardship of the economy during his first term in office.

“The economy is very important,” he said. “The thing is, if Trump wins, he’s definitely very good for the economy.”

Khan, who owns more than a dozen restaurants in the region, represents roughly one-third of Muslim voters that lean Republican. Although not all support Trump, the former president’s appeal among them seems to be growing, according to polls.

Muslim Americans are a diverse demographic. While Gaza tops their list of priorities, their concerns mirror those of the larger electorate: the economy, jobs, immigration and the environment.

Trump “is a businessman, and he knows how to fix the economy,” Khan said. “He gives you a lot of incentives.”

Democrat leaning Republican

Other Muslims leaning Republican echo the former president’s claim that the world was a calmer, more prosperous place on his watch, an assertion that has been questioned by fact-checkers.

“Things were going the right way, but all of a sudden everything is just collapsing,” said Dr. Rashid Chotani of Great Falls, Virginia.

Chotani, who used to vote Republican but has backed Democratic candidates in recent elections, is switching sides again.

Already disillusioned with the party’s leftward shift in recent years, the prominent Pakistani American doctor said Biden’s handling of the Gaza conflict was the final straw for him.

“I expected him to put an end to this catastrophe,” Chotani said. “I expected him to be just about what was going on in Palestine. He keeps saying that, ‘Yes, we will do something about it,’ but nothing has been done.”

Chotani is set to vote for Trump. But many others remain on the fence. Whether either of the two campaigns can win them over remains uncertain.

A cease-fire could sway some toward Harris, according to delegates and experts. The ISPU survey found that 91% of “swing Muslim voters” would support a pro-cease-fire candidate.

But even with a cease-fire, many may opt for third-party candidates or simply sit out the election, splintering the Muslim vote.

Some fear that this could weaken the 3.5 million-strong community’s political clout. With their votes split, their ability to influence elections might wane.

Chotani, however, sees a silver lining.

“United you can make a much bigger difference, but this is part of the evolution of democracy,” Chotani said. “As we evolve, we understand and appreciate more as to what's going on. We might go in separate directions, but I don't think it's a bad thing.”