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Democrats are in a celebratory mood with Kamala Harris leading the ticket.
They think she’s on her way to an overwhelming victory in November.
And James Carville gave Democrats some bad news about 2024 that left them in panic.
Things aren’t as rosy as it seems for Kamala
The entrance of Vice President Kamala Harris into the Presidential race gave Democrats a shot in the arm of enthusiasm.
She rode the momentum of an unprecedented media propaganda campaign on her behalf into a slim national lead in the polls against former President Donald Trump.
Democrats, after looking dead in the water with President Joe Biden earlier this summer, now think Kamala is in the driver’s seat for the election.
Veteran Democrat strategist James Carville burst the bubble of overly eager Democrats during an appearance on HBO’s Real Time with Bill Maher.
“I challenge Democrats with some caution here,” Carville said. “First of all, most want to say we have to win by three in the popular vote to win the Electoral College. So when you see a poll that says we two up. Well, that’s actually, you’re one down if the poll is correct.”
The RealClearPolitics polling average has Kamala leading nationally by less than two points.
“The other thing is Trump traditionally, when he’s on the ballot, chronically under-polls,” Carville added.
Trump was trailing Biden by nine points in late August 2020, according to 538’s polling average, before he won by 4.4 points nationally.
Hillary Clinton was up 6.5 points in the polls in 2016 when she lost the election but won the national popular vote by two points.
“Traditionally, with Trump on the ballot… Democrats say, ‘Oh James, you’re a Debbie Downer.’ I’m not. I’m just telling you, you got to win by three,” Carville added.
Swing states will determine the race
The battleground states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are where the Presidential election will be decided.
Carville noted that Trump was vastly underestimated in the swing states in the 2020 Election.
“Polls in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2020 showed Biden winning by 7-8 points,” Carville said.
All three Rust Belt states were much closer than the polls predicted in 2020.
Kamala’s momentum could be coming to an end
Kamala surged after she entered the race, but there’s some evidence to suggest that her momentum is starting to stall.
She was expected to get a big bounce coming out of the Democratic National Convention but polling suggests that’s not happening.
A Fox News poll of Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada found that the race was a tossup.
Trump was ahead by one in North Carolina and trailed by the slimmest of margins in the other three.
📊 Swing States poll by Fox News
ARIZONA
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 49%
—
GEORGIA
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 48%
—
NEVADA
🟦 Harris: 50%
🟥 Trump: 48%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 49%
—
#15 (2.8/3.0) | 4,053 RV | August 23-26https://t.co/EZhcpsTHEc pic.twitter.com/PypYc7YnPd— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 28, 2024
Fox News had the former President trailing by significant margins in all of those states in its 2020 polling.
Trump is polling better this election cycle than he did in 2016 or 2020.
It’s going to be another hard-fought election that comes down to the wire this November.
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