Critical to the strategic TRIAD, the Sentinel program is dangerously behind schedule and over cost.

The United States is facing the most hostile nuclear threats across the globe since the depths of the Cold War. America’s nuclear deterrent is the main and perhaps only military capability keeping Russia, China, and North Korea from being more aggressive, placing the country in greater jeopardy. The wall of nuclear deterrence, which has kept the United States safe since the dawn of the atomic age, is showing wear and tear. The Minuteman III network of silos, which will hold Sentinel missiles, and command and control nodes, is a half-century old.

Sentinel Program Faltering

Furthermore, in a recent move, the Biden administration revised the US nuclear strategy, recognizing the increased danger China represents. The updated nuclear planning also considers all three adversaries — China, Russia, and North Korea — as nuclear threats. While Team Biden has acknowledged the growing threat, the ground-based ICBM element of the submarine and bomber parts of the Triad is faltering.

Among the problems is the age of the Minuteman III silos, which will require modernization to accommodate the new Sentinel missiles. The Wall Street Journal spotlighted one issue in its recent report, “US Nuclear Missile Silos Need Modernizing but Fixes Aren’t Coming Soon Enough.” As the WSJ explained, upgrading the Sentinel silos requires working with farmers, ranchers, and communities near the silos. However, the construction necessary to modernize the silos and replace more than 7,500 miles of copper wiring connecting 450 silos with command and control facilities hasn’t started. As the WSJ pointed out:

“The largely rural communities that house the missiles have been plunged into uncertainty over when – or even if – thousands of workers will begin the construction project, which was slated to kick off this summer. Military leaders recently told residents in Kimball, Neb., a town surrounded by one of the biggest missile fields, that it could be five years or more before work starts.”

The Sentinel program started in 2016, and the US Air Force awarded the $13.3 billion Engineering and Manufacturing Development contract to aerospace company Northrop Grumman and a large construction company, Bechtel, on Sept. 8, 2020. Consequently, the Sentinel project has been a program of record for eight years, and now the Air Force claims that it could be another five years before the construction is started. Quick math says that’s 13 years of accomplishing very little. What has the Air Force been doing? In the simple business calculus of time is money, it’s no wonder the program is already estimated to be 37% over budget.

The Government Accountability Office, in a June 2024 report, explained the problem with the Sentinel silo modernization: “Ongoing launch facility design changes and persistent launch center design delays are contributing to the immaturity of the command and launch segment design and are slowing down the development of training equipment.” Continuous engineering changes are a common problem with development programs, but those can be solved with strong leadership and relentless management attention. Designs must be frozen early in the development phase of a program so there are baselines from which to work.

Program Manager Shown the Door

In an unusual move, the Air Force decided program leadership was not performing to expectations and fired the program manager. “Sentinel Systems Director Col. Charles Clegg was removed because he ‘did not follow organizational procedures’ and the service lost confidence in his ability to lead the program, Air Force spokesperson Ann Stefanek confirmed in a statement,” Defense One explained. Being in charge of a program significantly over cost and behind schedule does not make for career advancement.

What is concerning about the faltering Sentinel program is the seeming lack of urgency within the Air Force and the Department of Defense senior leadership. “’Its scale, scope and complexity are something we haven’t attempted as a nation for over 60 years,’ Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer, told reporters in July,” the WSJ reported. After eight years as a program of record and at least twice that length of time knowing the current Minuteman III had to be replaced, there is suddenly an epiphany? As critical as Sentinel is to America’s deterrence against adversaries, naysayers and detractors in Congress regard the land-based leg of the TRIAD as a target for cutting, a limping gazelle among hungry lions.

Having credible nuclear deterrent capability is not a trivial matter. A sense of immediacy about getting a crucial aspect of US nuclear capability back on track under the best leadership and management is essential, while America’s enemies move unhindered to eclipse the United States.

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.