New York appears to have avoided the doomed fate predicted by Mayor Eric Adams when the first wave of migrants began arriving by the busload last fall.

In September 2023, Mr. Adams warned that a “migrant crime wave” would wash over the city and called for massive budgetary cuts to help cover the $12 billion the city would need to provide shelter, medical care, and schooling, according to a recent report from The Atlantic.

To raise the money, his administration slashed programs for immediate cash, hitting the police academy the hardest, causing classes to be canceled and reducing the number of new recruits over next two years. He also cut funding for pre-K schools, reduced services like open hours for public libraries, and forced the FDNY to reduce the number of firefighters on their trucks.

“To balance the budget as the law requires, every city agency dug into their own budget to find savings, with minimal disruption to services,” Mr. Adams said in a statement in November 2023. “And while we pulled it off this time, make no mistake: Migrant costs are going up, tax revenue growth is slowing, and COVID stimulus funding is drying up.”

But nearly a year later, Mr. Adam’s predictions proved to be false. The City of New York found itself in good shape by February 2024 with almost a $3 billion surplus in its coffers — partly due to tax revenue exceeding expectations and migrant care costing less than initially projected. Mr. Adams eventually reversed the cuts he proposed and the wave of migrant-related crime that he forewarned the city about never crested.

While New York avoided the levels of chaos its mayor predicted over a year ago, the city is still dealing with a staggering 65,000 migrants remaining in its shelter system, with the mayor still pushing for more funding. In June, Mr. Adams declared that the city would no longer rely on “emergency” shelters, instead opting to start a competitive bidding process for vendors to manage shelters, migrant hotels, and other services.

The continued spending on migrant care will almost certainly lead to an increase in spending, which could shrink the city’s surplus.

Projections from the city’s Independent Budget Office predict another surplus of more than $3 billion for fiscal year 2025, but budget gaps are expected to swell the following three years between $5.6 to $6.5 billion.