Taylor Fritz vs. Matteo Berrettini has the potential to be the most pivotal match in the first week of the U.S. Open.

While it’s a tough break for either player to have to face the other this early in the tournament, the winner of Wednesday’s headliner will feel confident of his chances to get to the quarterfinals because this section of the bracket is wide open.

On the surface, this looks like Fritz’s match to lose.

The American is a -215 favorite to advance to Round 3 and is 32 spots higher than Berrettini in the world rankings, but there’s a lot of noise to sort through in this matchup.

Berrettini was bit by the injury bug for much of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, so his ranking dropped precipitously after it looked like the Roman was on his way to becoming a fixture in the top 10.

The first half of 2024 was a bit of a mixed bag for the big-serving Berrettini, but he clearly found his game in the summer.

Berrettini lifted the trophy in Marrakech, made it to the finals in Stuttgart and then took home back-to-back titles in Gstaad and Kitzbuhel.

He did have an early exit in Wimbledon and Cincinnati sprinkled in there, but he had brutal draws in both events.

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Fritz’s form, meanwhile, leaves something to be desired, considering his status as a favorite for this match.

This one is much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest, so the value is on the Italian.

The play: Matteo Berrettini +160 (DraftKings)