While the U.S. president has many responsibilities, one of his most important is to state what U.S. interests are and to issue warnings when hostile states encroach upon them. The president speaks with a unique authority that is unmatched. With push comes to shove, the president has to speak, not the Secretaries of State or Defense, or their public affairs officers. President Biden suffers from dementia and is no longer capable of meeting the demands of the office. This has profound costs for U.S. national security. One result is that the American people and American allies do not have the authoritative voice needed to deter aggression. When the U.S. needs the president to draw the line in the sand and warn adversaries of the great costs of crossing it, to deter a war that will involve the U.S., the president’s voice is absent. The consequence is a void, a security vacuum, and America’s enemy, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is filling it. In essence, the sheriff is gone, and the bad guys can do whatever they want.

While many Americans are focused on the Chicago convention and the 2024 election, the Philippines is on the verge of war with the PRC. The cause of this conflict is the PRC’s hyperaggression to achieve its objective of conquering the islands and shoals of the South China Sea while building many more to ensure absolute control. While the PRC has been laboring for many decades, the form of that aggression has been gradual but is now quickening, escalating in intensity, and broadening in location.

On August 19, at least three collisions occurred between Coast Guard ships belonging to the PRC and the Philippines. The first tore a hole 3.6 feet in diameter on the starboard side of a Philippine coast guard vessel, the Philippines said. Shortly thereafter, a PRC Coast Guard vessel rammed another Philippine coast guard ship twice, ripping a gap 2.5 feet long and 3 feet wide on the port side, according to the Philippines. It appears no one was killed in the incident. These were deliberate escalatory acts by the PRC in an effort to prevent the Philippines from exercising its sovereignty over its territory. This is a direct violation of the 2002 Code of Conduct to which both states are a party, and a stark violation of the sovereignty of the Philippines.

The incidents occurred near Flat Island and Nanshan Island, which are a short distance from Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines has outposts. In addition, the Philippines is attempting to block further reclamation efforts by the PRC at Sabina Shoal.  The Philippines said the collisions resulted from aggressive maneuvers by the PRC’s Coast Guard—a large and potent force on the front lines of Beijing’s efforts to enforce its claims in the South China Sea. China accused the Philippines coast guard of deliberately colliding with its ship. The PRC is putting teeth in its illegal territorial claim to the Nine-Dash Line and trying to control the territory within it absolutely. Moreover, Beijing is determined to break the Filipinos to force Manila out of its territory. Right here, right now, the PRC is aggressing against the Philippines.

This matters to Americans because the Philippines is a 1951 treaty ally of the United States. If the Philippines goes to war with the PRC, the U.S. will be involved. The U.S. must deter this conflict from escalating to war, and that requires Presidential leadership that is currently lacking. Second, this directly impacts Americans because Beijing’s aggressive ambitions will not stop if it successfully coerces the Philippines but will continue against other U.S. allies, partners, and other U.S. interests. Third, the South China Sea and East China Sea are strategic bodies of water and critical for the world’s economy. Trade through the East and South China Seas are estimated at $7.4 trillion, and critical for the PRC’s trade, as well as India’s and Japan’s.

While the PRC is using the stick to coerce the Philippines, it is employing the carrot to buy off Vietnam, a key actor in the South China Sea dispute. General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Central Committee and State President To Lam, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, his spouse, and a high-level Vietnamese delegation concluded on August 20 a three-day state visit to the PRC, where new trade and economic agreements were reached. The PRC is attempting to secure the western flank of its illegal Nine-Dash Line claim while it aggresses on its eastern. However Vietnam is not immune from the PRC’s aggression, and if Beijing is successful against Manila, Hanoi might be next.

U.S. presidential leadership is needed now to state the PRC’s aggression will not stand. The U.S. must now state that it will support Filipino efforts to maintain its sovereign territory by providing a strong arm to permit the resupply of its outposts. The U.S. must not permit the PRC to be successful in its effort to break the Philippines. Much more can be done be done by the Philippines. Manila can take a page out of Taiwan’s playbook. On August 23^rd, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te made his first visit to Kinmen Island, which is just over a mile from the PRC’s coast, and one of the islands on the frontline of increasing tension with the PRC. Lai stated exactly what he should, Taiwan will not be intimidated by the PRC. So too senior Filipino leaders may travel to these outposts with the U.S. Ambassador and other senior U.S. officials. It is in Vietnam’s interest to stand with the Philippines too. Strong statements to this effect would be welcome.

It is painful to recognize that the U.S. does not have a president who can fulfill a critical component of deterring a war between the Philippines and the PRC to which the U.S. will be a party. As the July Crisis that led to World War I started with the assassination of the Austrian Archduke and his wife in Sarajevo, so too World War III might start at Second Thomas Shoal. The world is drifting into a conflict in the South China Sea. Strong U.S. action is immediately necessary to deter it. Whoever is acting for President Biden needs to respond today.

***

James E. Fanell and Bradley A. Thayer are authors of Embracing Communist China: America’s Greatest Strategic Failure.