Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz predicted that former President Donald Trump could win nearly a third of the black vote in his rematch with President Biden in November.

While black voters have historically backed Democrats by wide margins in recent decades, the Biden Campaign is attempting to deal with months of troubling polling data on the key demographic’s preferences for 2024.

In 2020, NBC’s exit polls found that 87 percent of black voters backed Joe Biden. According to last April’s survey, Biden leads Trump with a 71% to 13% advantage, a massive decrease from 2020 highs. Black voter enthusiasm also appears to be down, as just 59% of black voters said they had significant interest in the 2024 election, down from 74% who said the same four years ago at a similar point in the race.

During an appearance on CNN, Luntz pointed to both the polling trends and personal anecdotes before making a prediction that would have major implications on the race if realized.

“But specifically with black voters, it’s not all black voters, it’s younger black voters and particularly younger black men,” Luntz said. “I discovered this when I got off a plane at JFK, when two baggage handlers came over to me to tell me that I don’t get it, that they’re going to vote for Donald Trump because they think they are being victimized the same way that he is.”

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“In some of these votes that have left Joe Biden over the last four years, it’s because of Biden’s weakness. In this case, young black men see in Donald Trump, the same kind of oppression, the same kind of persecution, the idea that Trump is a victim and they feel victimized by the system,” Luntz continued.

“And so they’re endorsing Trump because of the fight that he’s having, and I actually think it’s possible that among black voters, male black voters under age 40, that even a third of them could end up with Trump in the fall.”

The Biden Campaign appears to be well aware of Biden’s declining appeal to black voters, president recently kicked off a series of campaign events geared towards turning out the black vote. A big part of the campaign’s strategy is aimed at portraying former President Donald Trump and his supporters as “insidious” racists who stand in the way of “equality and inclusion.”

“My predecessor and his extreme MAGA friends are responsible for taking away other fundamental freedoms, from the freedom to vote to the freedom to choose. But I’ve always believed that the promise of America is big enough for everyone to succeed,” he said.

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