“They’re [Ukrainian forces] gaining an enormous morale boost,” retired Gen. David Petraeus said on CNN. “It’s a huge blow to Putin needless to say.” Carl Bildt, Sweden’s former prime minister, was even more ebullient, writing that “Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has fundamentally changed the course of the conflict.” Retired Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, exclaimed that Kyiv’s operation in Kursk tore apart Russia’s narrative of invincibility.

This isn’t the first time military experts and other observers have jumped the gun — indeed, jumping the gun seems to be the pattern. Too many tend to extrapolate far too much based on a single military event, even if that event appears significant in the moment. First, it was Ukraine’s impressive defense against Russia’s initial invasion toward Kyiv in the opening weeks of the war. Then it was Ukraine’s swift counteroffensive in Kharkiv, which reclaimed the region from Russian forces in a matter of days. Then it was Russia’s beating back the Ukrainian army’s 2023 counteroffensive along the 600-mile frontline. Now it’s Ukraine’s invasion of Russian territory. In each case, the event was less a turning point and more an example of how interstate war ebbs and flows. 

Let there be no doubt: The Russian army’s inability to stop Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk is a humiliation. The Ukrainians control more than 90 settlements inside Russia and 490 square miles of Russian territory. The Russians were caught unaware and were forced to deploy ill-trained and inexperienced conscripts to the area to stem further advances. Hundreds of Russian troops have since been captured.

But there’s something else we shouldn’t doubt: The Kursk incursion is Ukraine’s biggest gamble of the war to date. The Ukrainian military high command chose to redeploy highly capable, battle-tested forces from areas of the front, including the most active areas in Donetsk, to support this incursion. In other words, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and commander Oleksandr Syrskyi, his top general, is flirting dangerously close to the prospect of trading Pokrovsk for smaller settlements in Kursk that, in the end, will be difficult to defend after the Russians finally get their bearings. 

Ask Ukrainian officials what the purpose of the Kursk offensive is, and you get several different answers. Some say this operation is designed to boost morale after months in which Ukrainian troops have confronted merciless Russian artillery, air, and “meat assaults” in Donetsk, which over time have allowed the Russian army to chip away gains (at considerable cost to Russia’s own manpower). Zelensky suggested that the aim was to carve out a buffer zone inside Russian territory to save residents of Ukraine’s Sumy region the pain of having to experience daily artillery attacks. Others insist that the newly won ground will give Kyiv more leverage at the negotiating table and push the Russians to talk about a fair peace. 

All of these objectives, however, depend on Ukraine holding this ground for the long term. The initial process notwithstanding, this is going to be an extremely difficult thing for Ukrainian troops to pull off, if only because they are now in enemy terrain and have expanded their supply lines into Russia. If the Ukrainians try to press their luck, they will stretch those supply lines even further, thereby making them more vulnerable. But if the Ukrainians stay put and try to consolidate control, they will become stationary targets for Russian air power. If the thrust into Kursk was meant to get Moscow’s attention, then it most certainly did.

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The Kursk operation will also further strain Ukraine’s manpower situation, and Kyiv needs all of the personnel it can get to prevent the Russians from capturing the areas of Donetsk that now reside outside their control. Although Zelensky has authorized a lower draft age for mobilization, the recruits coming to the front have been rushed through the training because the need for personnel is so great. One can’t imagine how an offensive into Russian territory will help alleviate the pressure. 

If gains in Kursk come at the cost of lost land in the Donbas, is this really a win for Ukraine?

Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.