The path to the House majority runs mostly through blue states with Republican-held seats Democrats hope to flip back to their corner and a handful of races in swing states that could tack closely with the presidential contest this November.

Republicans control the House with a razor-thin majority and are defending territory they won last cycle, while also looking at additional pick-up opportunities. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take back the House and are targeting seats they lost in 2022, while also trying to protect their incumbents.

Two-and-a-half months from Election Day, the battlefield is pretty evenly split.

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“Control for the House still looks pretty purely like a toss-up,” Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for the Cook Political Report, told The Washington Times. “A month ago, when [President] Biden was still at the top of the ticket, that was very much in question.”

Democrats worried Mr. Biden, plagued by low approval ratings, would diminish the party’s turnout in November and serve as a drag on down-ballot races.

Vice President Kamala Harris has drummed up enthusiasm since replacing him as the party’s nominee, which House Democrats hope will trickle down to their races.

Here are some of the key dynamics to watch in the House races this fall:

New York and California

In 2022, Republicans won the House majority largely by flipping seats in New York and California. Those districts will again serve as battlegrounds that could determine which party wins control of the lower chamber.

“Democrats have enough opportunities in either of those states to make up the entire difference,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, told The Times. “That’s the ballgame.”

All but three of the 17 competitive districts in New York and California went for Mr. Biden in 2020. If Ms. Harris can recreate the coalition of younger, more liberal voters that backed him in those areas, Democrats will have multiple pathways to take back the House, Mr. Rubashkin said. 

One key race to watch is freshman Rep. John Duarte’s in California’s 13th District.

“Duarte was the weakest Republican [on the ballot] in that district in 2022. Every other Republican statewide overperformed him,” Mr. Rubashkin said.

Democrats have a better chance to pick up his central California district than the neighboring 22nd District, where Rep. David Valadao has outperformed other Republicans — including former President Donald Trump in 2020 — and demonstrated more crossover appeal, he and Ms. Covey said.

Mr. Duarte and Mr. Valadao represent two of three GOP-held seats in California that Mr. Biden won by double digits in 2020. The other, held by Rep. Mike Garcia in the 27th District, is a potential pickup for Democrats, Ms. Covey said.

In New York, Democrats’ best opportunity is taking out Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd District, which recent redistricting made a little more blue.

Mr. Williams is the only battleground incumbent that Inside Elections assesses as an underdog in its ratings, labeling his district “Tilt Democratic.” 

“He hasn’t really kind of served like a moderate from a district that voted for Biden by double digits. He’s a pretty conservative guy,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “And he has had some personal baggage that has been not so kind to him.”

Mr. Williams won in 2022 by a single percentage point against a Democrat who, like him, had never held political office. This cycle, his challenges compound: The New York legislature added more Biden voters to the district, and he faces an experienced Democratic politician, state Sen. John Mannion.

Among the three New York districts the Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups, Ms. Covey said the 4th District, represented by GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, is most likely to flip. Mr. Biden won it by 14.5 percentage points in 2020.

“Even though Long Island is kind of different and does tend to elect more Republicans down ballot … if Harris is winning the seat even by a high single digit, it’s going to be difficult for the Republican incumbent to overperform Trump to the extent that he needs to,” Ms. Covey said. 

Incumbent advantage

Although “incumbency isn’t worth what it once,” it could make a difference in a close overall race, Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said in emailed comments to The Times.

“One tiny advantage for Republicans is that essentially all of their vulnerable seats are being defended by incumbents,” he said. “The Democrats have incumbents running in the vast majority of their vulnerable seats, but they do have a few legitimately competitive open seats.”

Mr. Kondick cited Michigan’s 7th and 8th districts, California’s 47th District and Virginia’s 7th District — all currently held by Democrats but open this cycle due to incumbents retiring or running for higher office.

“Open seats are just more difficult to defend,” Ms. Covey said, noting the two in Michigan are especially challenging terrain since Mr. Biden barely topped Mr. Trump in those districts in 2020.

The loss of the incumbent name brand is greatest in Michigan, where Rep. Dan Kildee is retiring after six terms. He succeeded his uncle, former Rep. Dale Kildee, who served for 36 years.

Perennial Republican candidate Paul Junge, who lost to Mr. Kildee in 2022, has some name recognition as he makes his third bid for the 8th District seat this cycle. But it may not all be good.

“He was a self-funder, and Democrats were able to kind of easily paint him as a trust-fund kid and a carpetbagger last cycle,” Ms. Covey said.

Mr. Rubashkin agreed Mr. Junge is one of Republicans’ weaker candidates, but said even Democratic polling has shown him leading.

In the other three open battleground districts, Democrats are losing the fundraising prowess of incumbent Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Katie Porter of California and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.

Ms. Slotkin and Katie Porter ran for Senate this year, with the former advancing to general but the latter losing her primary, and Ms. Abigail is running for governor in 2025.

“It absolutely is a financial hit for Democrats to have to run new candidates in those seats,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “And for Republicans, they are pretty much across the board running repeat candidates, and so they have the ability to start a little bit sooner.”

Of the returning GOP candidates, Scott Baugh got the closest last cycle, narrowly losing to Ms. Porter by 3 percentage points in California’s 47th District. He faces Democratic state Sen. Dave Min this year. 

Presidential swing states

The two open Michigan seats are among a handful of competitive House races in presidential swing states where the outcome at the top of the ticket could have a down-ballot impact.

The others all feature incumbents. That includes a pair of Republicans in Arizona — Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani in the 1st and 6th Districts — and two Democrats in Pennsylvania — Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in the 7th and 8th Districts.

Lower on the presidential totem pole is North Carolina, where Republicans are eying the 1st District, represented by Democratic Rep. Don Davis, as a prime target. Mr. Trump won North Carolina in 2020, but Mr. Biden narrowly carried the 1st District and Ms. Harris has been polling well in the state this cycle.

Mr. Biden won six of the seven aforementioned districts in 2020, except for Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which Mr. Trump carried by 3 percentage points. 

Running in a state where the primary focus is on the presidential race can be a blessing and a curse. 

“There’s going to be the increased presence of volunteers and organizing infrastructure that we’re seeing in a lot of these battleground states going to trickle down to help these House members,” Ms. Covey said.

On the flip side, competing for attention in a media market with multiple competitive races “makes it that much more expensive for everyone involved to run a campaign,” Mr. Rubashkin said.

Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania all have battleground Senate races this cycle too. 

Trump-district Democrats

While Democrats are focused primarily on offensive opportunities, taking back the majority hinges on defending incumbents, particularly in districts Mr. Trump won in 2020.

Reps. Jared Golden of Maine, Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, Mary Peltola of Alaska and Mr. Cartwright all represent districts Mr. Trump carried.

“They’re also some of the Democrats’ strongest incumbents, just because they have done more to separate themselves from the national party,” Ms. Covey said. “But they are going to be in difficult positions.”

Because ticket-splitting is not as common as it once was — particularly by significant margins — those Democrats need Ms. Harris to be somewhat competitive with Mr. Trump in their districts if they are going to succeed, Mr. Rubashkin said. 

“There’s not a candidate in the country who can overcome a truly abysmal presidential performance anymore,” he said.