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Will RFK Jr. endorse Donald Trump?
By: F. Andrew Wolf, Jr.
Will he, or won’t he? By the time this piece is published we may already know. But there’s more to the story, and the odds are in Trump’s favor.
Does Robert F. Kennedy Jr. plan to withdraw from the race for president? Multiple sources say yes — and by the end of this week. Moreover, sources indicate that RFK Jr. plans to endorse Donald Trump. Kennedy himself, of course, will neither confirm nor deny such speculation.
His campaign spokespersons cautioned (off the record) that the decision is not yet finalized. Kennedy’s rationale could be to finalize a decision quickly to try and impede Harris’s unexpected momentum coming off the Democratic National Convention.
It has been suggested that Kennedy might appear publicly on stage with Trump at an event in Phoenix on Friday, though sources close to Trump say no plan for Friday is finalized.
Amaryllis Fox, Kennedy’s campaign manager, notified staff on Wednesday — but indicated no decision had yet been made.
Kennedy, apparently, will give a live news conference on Friday to disclose his decision — no further details were provided. The Trump campaign is remaining silent regarding the speculation on Kennedy’s announcement.
In a caustic comment to ABC News, Kennedy suggested the Democratic convention and its presidential nominee Kamala Harris was anything but democratic. “I think it was a coronation, it’s not democracy. Nobody voted. Who chose Kamala? It wasn’t voters.” Kennedy continued, “she went in four weeks from being the worst liability for Democratic Party to the second coming of Christ without giving one interview, without showing up for a debate, without a single policy that anyone thinks isn’t ridiculous,” he said. “It’s not democracy.”
So, what are the odds of Kennedy “moving the needle” towards Trump if the speculation is accurate?
Over the past 24 hours things have changed in the “ethereal world” of probability and statistics (i.e. book-making). Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the 2024 presidential election have seen a reversal with leading bookmakers.
Kennedy on Tuesday suggested he was ready to hold talks about stepping down from the 2024 race. “As always,” he wrote on X, “I am willing to talk with leaders of any political party to further the goals I have served for 40 years in my career and in this campaign.” In a televised interview on the same day, Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s running mate, said the pair could “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump.”
Subsequent to Shanahan’s comment the odds makers went to work.
Bookmakers Bet365 and William Hill revealed the following results: Harris’ chances of victory in November fell from (55.6 percent) on Tuesday to (52.4 percent) on Wednesday, Moreover, over the same 24-hour period, Harris’s odds of victory with bookmaker Betfair went from (55.6 percent) to (54.5 percent).
Perhaps the most important disclosure came August 10th when Polymarket, which many describe as the “world’s biggest prediction market,” had forecast that Harris would receive 52 percent of the presidential election vote against the former president’s 45 percent.
But, as was noted at the beginning of this article, at 5 a.m. ET on August 21, Trump had regained the lead, with 52 percent of support versus Harris’s 47 percent.
My, how things change. We shall see Friday. This writer suspects the odds makers are right – they usually are. “The needle” has already started to move. Now we just need to maintain the momentum towards November 5th.
It’s time to place your bets.
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