The big loser when Kennedy calls it quits is ...

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign is a testament to what happens when a candidate is given zero oxygen from the news media. He began his bid by making a valiant effort to rescue the Democratic Party from moving further left. However, the Democrats’ utter rejection of RFK Jr. left him little room to maneuver, which makes his Friday, August 23, press conference potentially the most significant event of the season in an election cycle filled with surprises.

Kennedy announced on his campaign website that he would be holding an event in Phoenix, AZ, just a short drive from where Donald Trump is holding a rally tomorrow and a mere two hours later. It’s often said that there are no coincidences, and that truth doubles down when it comes to politics.

The Road Behind and the Path Forward

Looking to fill the office his uncle once held and that his father ran for, Kennedy began his bid by entering the race as a Democrat. But the party made plain it wasn’t interested in RFK Jr. and ran a hostile crusade against him. Feeling the heat, Kennedy made the difficult decision to switch his affiliation and run as an independent.

Historically, few presidential candidates have launched campaigns without the backing of the two major American parties; their lack of success in overcoming the systematic hurdles involved in such an effort speaks for itself. This does not mean the independent candidacies have had no effect – they have – but it’s usually within the realm of spoiler rather than victor. This is the juncture at which RFK Jr. now finds himself.

Some claim the termination of RFK Jr.’s campaign would benefit Vice President Kamala Harris. While well-intentioned, these people are turning out to be outliers. Poll after poll reveals Kennedy’s support is coming from the Donald Trump camp. In the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, a recent survey by The New York Times/Siena College shows that 41% of those who prefer Kennedy would vote for Trump if RFK Jr. were to drop out of the race.

Does this put Kennedy in the kingmaker seat? Probably.

Nicole Shanahan, whom Kennedy selected as his running mate, dropped the first public hint of potential cooperation with Team Trump when she publicly announced that serious consideration is being given to ending their campaign because they see no realistic path forward. With poll numbers in hand, Shanahan and Kennedy realized the power of quitting. It would likely provide a boost for Trump, with the corollary that staying in the race would significantly assist the Harris/Walz ticket – something they would like to avoid above all.

RFK Jr. – Kingmaker and Spoiler

Which role RFK Jr. would prefer to play goes to the depth of his hatred for the Democratic Party. At every turn, the Democrats have actively worked against the Kennedy/Shanahan ticket. They have challenged his ballot initiatives in state after state, trotted out his family in a show of support for the (previous) Biden/Harris ticket, and consistently bad-mouthed him in the press.

Alternatively, the strategists at Trump HQ have managed to keep their powder dry and not unnecessarily bait the Kennedy camp. In a televised interview, Trump even threw an olive branch to RFK Jr., saying he would be a welcome addition to a future Trump administration.

Whether the statement is a head fake or sincere sentiment, Shanahan indicated that they could “walk away right now and join forces with Donald Trump,” adding: “I would say that I trust the future of this country more under the leadership of Trump” than Harris, Newsweek reported.

Trump went further in a recent CNN interview, asserting, “I like him a lot, I respect him a lot.” When asked about a potential Kennedy endorsement, Trump complimented RFK Jr: “He’s a very different kind of a guy, a very smart guy, and I would be honored by that endorsement certainly.”

These few signals tell a lot about the state of affairs between campaigns. While the Democrats often claim Trump is erratic and confounding, he may have gotten the best of them this time around. And his circumspect treatment of Kennedy may have been a pivotal play on the political chessboard. Likewise, the nasty treatment RFK Jr. suffered from the Democrats certainly does not help the Harris/Walz ticket and may come back to haunt them.

Kennedy facing the press at the exact moment Harris basks in the post-DNC glow seems beyond the realm of happenstance. At the very least, the timing of Kennedy’s presser smacks of revenge. If his withdrawal manages to throw the race to Trump, he just might feel that running was worth the effort to become both kingmaker and spoiler.