If the election were held today …

As Democrat nominee Kamala Harris basks in a convention-inspired poll bump, the real tale of the tape is happening in battleground states across the country. While Harris’ poll numbers nationally appear to be benefiting from a collective sigh of relief that President Joe Biden is no longer atop the ticket, the wave of enthusiasm that an 11th-hour reprieve such as this might usually herald has not yet risen. In fact, a close look at swing state polling suggests that her campaign might be underperforming where it really counts.

The Battleground Gambit

Both  Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are throwing the majority of their time and treasure at either flipping or holding the seven crucial swing states. Notably, in the waning days of Biden’s candidacy, Trump had a lead in all seven and, despite media-driven “Kamalamentum,” still maintains that edge in five.

Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia are all currently leaning toward Trump based on the RealClearPolitics average; Harris has the scoop in Michigan and Wisconsin. The margins are slim and could flip on the proverbial dime, but if the election were held today, only one candidate would have a viable path to the Oval Office.

With 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory, some states are as certain to go blue or red as death and taxes – think California for Democrats and Wyoming for Republicans –and what remains are the battlegrounds.

If we take the basic assumption that one of Maine’s votes will go to the GOP and one of Nebraska’s goes to Democrats and don’t assign any of the swing states, that leaves Trump at 219 and Harris at 222. So, what happens when we follow the current polling?

Mapping the Nation

If Harris takes the two states where she is leading (Michigan’s 15 EC votes and Wisconsin’s 10), that puts her total at 225, still 45 votes short. Should Trump prove the polling right and claim his five,* he will cross the finish line with 287. However, things could easily go wrong for either candidate.

If Harris can flip Pennsylvania to her column, she adds 19 to her total but, more importantly, sinks Trump down to 268 – making it truly the “keystone” state. To make up this shortfall, the 45th president would need to secure the aforementioned Michigan or Wisconsin – not an impossible task, but certainly a more circuitous one.

As for VP Harris, let’s suggest that she wins Pennsylvania and is now sitting on 244; she still needs 26 votes. That could come in the form of either:

• Arizona and North Carolina
• Arizona and Georgia
• North Carolina and Georgia

Any one of these combinations would put her over the top.

Mountains to Climb

As things stand today, Trump has the easier route to a win; he needs to defend the five states in which he currently leads. The mountain is currently much steeper for Harris, who has to defend the two states she presently leads, flip Pennsylvania, and secure another two states (not including Nevada).

The fact is that this is shaping up to be a close election. Democrats had hoped that by kicking Biden to the curb, they would regain the upper hand, but that appears not to have happened. Despite a full-court press from the left-leaning media, the Harris campaign seems to lack the star power of a Barack Obama or the energy of a Donald Trump. If Kamala wants to keep her White House access, she’ll have to claw for every single vote and do the necessary work to earn them. There will be no free rides this time around.

*Arizona 11, Nevada 6, Pennsylvania 19, North Carolina 16, and Georgia 16.