The landscape of the 2024 presidential race is rapidly evolving after new polling data emerged from Pennsylvania, a battleground state that has been a bellwether for national sentiment in past elections. New figures from an Emerson College poll could signal a turning point in the race.

Former President Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 51% to 49%, after undecided voters’ preferences are distributed. This does represent a tightening of the race compared to last month’s results, where Trump led Harris 51% to 45% among very likely voters. However, a string of polling released from the state over the past few weeks reliably showed Harris leading in the Keystone State. Emerson’s newest data firmly bucks that trend.

Electorally, Trump appears to retain his edge over Harris on pivotal issues such as the economy and immigration—domains where his policies have resonated with certain voter segments. However, Harris shows improvement from Joe Biden’s previous performance on both issues.

🚨BREAKING: President Trump up +2 in Pennsylvania in a new Emerson College poll:

Trump: 51%
Kamala: 49% pic.twitter.com/VJ66bwBCtf

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) August 16, 2024

The poll also dove into the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania, where incumbent Democrat Bob Casey (D-PA) is leading Republican challenger Dave McCormick, 48% to 44%, with 8% of voters undecided. Since last month, Casey has maintained his support level, whereas McCormick has seen a slight decline from 47%. The Senate race mirrors the contentious and closely watched presidential contest.

The candidates’ public perception is also telling. Both Harris and Trump have nearly equal favorable ratings at 48% and 47%, respectively. Their unfavorable ratings are similarly close, with 52% of voters viewing Harris negatively compared to 53% for Trump. In terms of voter concerns, the economy is the top issue for 51% of likely voters in Pennsylvania. Other significant issues include threats to democracy, immigration, housing affordability, healthcare, and abortion access.

Independents show a slight preference for Trump, with 48% backing him versus 45% for Harris. In suburban areas, Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump, 50% to 47%. Among religious demographics, Trump has a substantial advantage with Protestant voters, leading 58% to 40%, and with Roman Catholic voters, where he leads 60% to 39%. Harris finds strong support among atheists and agnostics, who favor her overwhelmingly, 84% to 13%. She also leads among those with no specific religious affiliation, who back her by a margin of 56% to 39%. The poll also asked voters about fracking—a significant issue in Pennsylvania given its substantial natural gas industry. Here, 50% of voters trust Trump to handle the issue better compared to 43% who prefer Harris.

In Pennsylvania, union affiliation seems to play a significant role in voter preferences, according to Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Pennsylvania likely voters in unions break for Harris by 15 points, 57% to 42%, while those not in a union and without union members in the household break for Trump, 50% to 48%,” Kimball explained.

Trump’s campaign is intensely focused on Pennsylvania, viewing the state as essential for a victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. To secure a win, Trump’s strategy includes reclaiming Pennsylvania and Georgia, states he won in 2016 but lost in 2020, and retaining his support in North Carolina.

(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)