China’s communist leadership views both American presidential candidates as pursuing unfriendly policies toward China and thus expects few policy changes from either one as president after the November elections.

Officially, Chinese government officials insist the election is an internal matter for the United States. Officials have sought to avoid publicly showing a preference for either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris, U.S. officials and analysts say.

But some officials and analysts say Beijing is quietly rooting for Ms. Harris, the Democrat, and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to win, as both are perceived by Beijing as holding views that potentially will produce more favorable policies and easier relations toward China.

---

---

Chinese government censors reportedly have gone so far as to block social media reports on the U.S. race to prevent outside critics from charging election meddling.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian denied recent U.S. intelligence reporting warning that Beijing is working with agents inside the United States to influence the election outcome.

“China has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S.,” Mr. Lin said on July 30, calling charges of meddling in elections disinformation “to vilify China.”

Another ministry spokesman, Wang Wenbin, said in March that “no matter who is elected as next president of the U.S., we hope that the U.S. can meet China halfway and advance China-U.S. relations in the stable, sound, and sustainable direction.”

The Biden administration’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) stated in an election security update that China is approaching the presidential election more cautiously than Russia, and probably does not plan to influence its outcome.

The July 9 update said Beijing views election interference as providing little reward since the ruling Communist Party perceives that “both political parties seek to contain China.”

China, however, is continuing to influence the American public more broadly and is expanding data collection and monitoring on social media platforms to promote public opinion in support China’s policies, the ODNI analysts said.

An intelligence official told reporters July 29 that U.S. spy agencies are monitoring the possibility that people linked to Beijing will “seek to denigrate down-ballot candidates it sees as threatening its core interests.” Beijing targeted “a handful” of such races in 2022 , both Democrat and Republican candidates, the official said.

“Regardless of China’s approach to the election, PRC influence actors are using social media to sow divisions in the United States and … portray democracies as chaotic,” the official said using the acronym for People’s Republic of China.

In Beijing, diplomats at the U.S. Embassy and all consulates in China were ordered not discuss the election with Chinese officials over concerns the information could be used to interfere in the outcome.

Analysts say it is difficult to discern which candidate China prefers, and state media has produced varying indicators of support. The tempered posture on the presidential election may not last through Election Day Nov. 5, however.

Two state-run media outlets, Global Times and China Daily, have written articles saying the presidential race will be close. They somewhat echoed the official propaganda view that both candidates are expected to continue earlier U.S. confrontational policies recognizing China as a strategic competitor.

“Both Trump and Biden, as well as his vice president, whom Biden earmarked to replace him in the election upon his withdrawal, seem ready to continue to blame U.S. troubles on foreign countries in a bid to divert domestic attention from the core challenges faced by the U.S.,” wrote commentator Li Yang in China Daily.

’Bipartisan consensus’ on China

A recent journal article by three Chinese academics provides the first details on the official view from Beijing on the U.S. candidates and the election.

Wang Jisi, Hu Ran and Zhao Jianwei, all government-linked analysts at Peking University’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies, stated in a recent Foreign Affairs article that the election will not alter the “bipartisan consensus” of both U.S. major parties that casts China as a strategic competitor and adversary.

The views of the three analysts are considered an accurate reflection of official Chinese thinking. The institute stated in its 2023 annual report that its core mission is “serving [China’s] national strategy.”

The authors wrote that whether Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris is elected, the U.S. government will continue to maintain strategic competition and “even containment” of China, while placing cooperation and exchanges at a lower priority.

“Given the broad similarities of both the Trump and the Biden administrations’ approach to China, Beijing is preparing itself for the outcome of the U.S. elections with great caution and limited hope,” they said.

For the long term, U.S.-China relations are unlikely to return to deep exchanges and cooperation like that during the early 2000s, the authors stated.

The article quotes Chinese President Xi Jinping as casting the United States as an enemy. Mr. Xi said in March 2023 speech that Western states, led by the United States, implemented “all-around containment, encirclement, and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.”

Mr. Trump in his first term in office sharply changed U.S. policy toward China by declaring Beijing a strategic competitor and, after first trying to negotiate a new trade accord with Beijing, imposing tariffs on Chinese goods.

During a recent interview on X, the Republican nominee repeated criticisms of China for its role in the COVID-19 pandemic but said he hopes to get along with Mr. Xi if elected. He also said the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal is part of a dangerous trend.

Mr. Trump also recent said in a campaign speech that Mr. Xi wrote him “a beautiful note” after he was wounded in an assassination attempt July 13.

Biden adopts Trump approach

President Biden kept many of the hard-line Trump policies toward China in place starting in 2021. But Mr. Biden also launched a diplomatic offensive to resume more regular communications with China after a summit with Mr. Xi in California in November 2023.

His administration has kept tariffs in place and imposed new restrictions on China’s purchase of advanced microchips as part of a major effort to prevent U.S. technology from bolstering the rapidly expanding Chinese military, moves that angered the Xi government. The Democratic administration also launched a major behind-the-scenes effort through diplomacy to prevent China from building a network of military bases around the world that could be used to better project power.

Ms. Harris views on China, based on vice presidential statements, appear aligned with Mr. Biden, including the need to maintain more open lines of communication and peacefully managing competition. In September 2023 she said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that the United States does not seek to de-couple its highly integrated economy from China but to lower security risks, an approach that had been dubbed “de-risking.”

“It’s not about pulling out, but it is about ensuring that we are protecting American interests, and that we are a leader in terms of the rules of the road, as opposed to following others’ rules,” she said.

On the changing environment for U.S. businesses in China, Ms. Harris also said “there is increasingly an understanding that China may not be the best bet when you are looking for stability, when you are looking for an investment in a place where there is an adherence to and respect for international rules and norms.”

Policies for a second Trump term

Mr. Trump’s plans for policies toward China have not been clearly outlined.

Matthew Pottinger, deputy White House national security adviser under Mr. Trump, has called for moving beyond managing relations with Beijing to “winning the competition” against the world’s second emerging economic superpower.

Mr. Wang, Ms. Hu and Mr. Zhao stated that Mr. Biden “cemented” the adversarial policies of the Trump administration by adopting a more systematic and multilateral approach.

“Washington has also given the contest with China a new overlay of ideology — what the administration calls ’democracy vs. autocracy’ — in an effort to build a grand alliance against Beijing,” they stated.

A military analyst said China prefers Ms. Harris as president because she is perceived as being weaker on China and thus more easily manipulated in support of China’s strategic goals.

Also, Mr. Walz, the expected vice presidential nominee, is also believed to hold favorable views of the Chinese people and culture. As a teacher and tourist, Mr. Walz traveled to China 30 times on what some analysts say were Beijing-funded visits.

Mr. Walz spent a year in China teaching following the June 1989 Tiananmen massacre, when Chinese troops used force against unarmed pro-democracy protesters, an event he later said deeply affected his opinion of the regime and the Chinese system..

At least one China-aligned media outlet, South China Morning Post, recently warned that a second Trump administration would revive the Justice Department’s policy of aggressively prosecuting Chinese agents, including those at universities, called the China Imitative. The Justice program was canceled, at least in name, by Biden administration over what officials said were concerns the initiative unfairly targeted Asian Americans with links to Beijing.

Prosecutions of Chinese spies have continued apace, however. FBI Director Christopher Wray told Congress the FBI investigated more than 2,000 China-related investigations in recent years.

The Trump administration also sought to prosecute a high-level executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei Technologies, Meng Wanzhou, on charges related to the company’s illegal exports to Iran. The prosecution was dropped by the Biden administration under demands from Beijing that legal action against Ms. Meng would further undermine U.S.-China relations.

Weighing the options

Bill Bishop, author of the China affairs newsletter Sinocism, said he understood the Chinese had been preparing to explain the official position in June. That plan was delayed when Mr. Biden withdrew from the race and Ms. Harris became the presidential candidate, he said.

The Foreign Affairs article by the three experts was produced by “relevant organs” of the government, Mr. Bishop said.

“Their main point is that they do not see too much daylight between either Trump or Harris and have no expectation that the relationship will materially improve regardless of who wins the election,” he stated.

The Chinese view is that China and the United States can maintain stable ties and “avoid catastrophe” without a rapprochement whoever is in the Oval Office, the three experts stated.

Brad Thayer, a conservative China analyst, said that, without saying so, Beijing clearly prefers the Harris-Walz ticket since they are expected to deepen and broaden Mr. Biden’s engagement policies.

“Harris-Walz will be the most pro-PRC administration in history and so will permit the PRC to advance its interests in international politics without fear of being checked by U.S. power and the strong opposition that was evinced in the first Trump administration,” said Mr. Thayer, with the Center for Security Policy.

Asia policy expert Gordon Chang also sees a pronounced desire in China that Mr. Trump not secure a second term in the White House.

“Beijing has not decisively tipped its hand yet as to preference, but the clear trend of anti-Trump videos on TikTok is an early indication that this year, as in 2020, the Chinese Communists are voting blue,” said China expert Gordon Chang. “And I am sure that the addition of Tim Walz to the Harris ticket will ensure the Democrats get Beijing’s vote.”

By contrast, a second Trump administration is expected to confront China aggressively with the strategic objective of defeating of the CCP, similar to how President Ronald Reagan vanquished the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

“Two strategic paths are ahead,” Mr. Thayer said. “One path will lead to a U.S. victory over the CCP. The other invites a U.S. defeat. It will ensure that the CCP survives and thrives, to the detriment of the American people, U.S. national security interests, and U.S. allies.”

The Trump administration in 2019 authorized a CIA clandestine operation to sow public opposition to the Chinese government on overseas social media, Reuters reported in March. By contrast, President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have said repeatedly since coming into office that the United States will not seek to undermine China’s communist system, a key demand by Beijing if Washington wants better bilateral relations.

Mr. Bishop of the Sinocism blog said he doubts Mr. Walz’ experience will impact China policy if he becomes vice president in a Harris administration.

“Did anyone care what Harris’ views about China were when she ran with Biden in 2020 and does anyone think her views on China had any impact on the Biden administration’s China policies?” he said.

A likely key policy adviser to Ms. Harris as president will be Philip Gordon, currently her adviser on security matters.

Mr. Gordon is likely to become White House national security adviser in a Harris administration. He was among 100 foreign policy experts who signed a 2019 letter declaring “China is not an enemy” and calling for more conciliatory policies toward Beijing.

“We do not believe Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone,” the letter stated.

Mr. Bishop said he wonders if Mr. Gordon would sign the letter today after four years of U.S. intelligence briefings on China.

Despite China’s concerns that election intervention in could produce charges of meddling, the private intelligence group Recorded Future stated in a recent threat analysis that China is continuing high-volume, low-impact influence and cyber operations aimed at the election: “China will very likely conduct malign influence seeking to shape the U.S. 2024 elections,” the report said noting that its efforts to take over Taiwan are a key factor.

Noting China has not voiced a preference for either presidential candidate, the report said Beijing influence activities are unlikely to promote or denigrate either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris. Instead, China is working to destabilize domestic U.S. politics and undermine Americans’ confidence in the democratic election process itself.

One group, identified as “Empire Dragon” by Recorded Future, has been observed amplifying polarizing content online related to the American presidential campaign. The issues highlighted include racial inequality and anti-Israel university protests.

The impact of the Chinese activities was assessed as “negligible” as of mid-August, based on very little generated engagement despite the deployment of thousands of Chinese assets, the report said.

In July, Empire Dragon posted content directly targeting the election using the conviction of President Biden’s son, Hunter, on gun charges and the 2021 Capitol riot, depicting both candidates as corrupt.

The group also sought to deflect attention from the anniversary of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre by attempting to flood social media with posts about the 2020 death of George Floyd, while in the custody of police in Minneapolis.

• Staff writer Ryan Lovelace contributed to this story.