At this point, the biggest threat to President Trump’s chances in November is not Kamala Harris or her lapdogs in the mainstream media; it’s Chicken Littles on the right who swear that the election is already over and that President Trump is doomed for failure.

These feeble minds are like blades of grass in a tornado, blown every which way at the mercy of the ever-changing political winds, while stronger minds are the structures that remain firmly rooted in the ground by the foundation of their convictions.

Yes, President Trump is still the favorite to win. Yes, Kamala’s artificial “honeymoon phase” has already ended, mostly due to Tim Walz’s out-of-control “stolen valor” scandal and the historic success of President Trump’s Twitter Space with Elon Musk. Yes, President Trump is still in complete control of the narrative, not the least of which includes his surgical attack on Kamala’s fake dual-racial identity.

Does this mean that he is guaranteed to win? Of course not. Nothing is ever certain in politics, especially politics in the year 2024 A.D. There are still 80 days to go until the election, which is a lifetime and a half in politics.

But the fundamentals still clearly favor President Trump. Here is the evidence.

The Many Roads to 270

At the end of it all, as polls come and go—including recent ones that bear much better news for President Trump than the media would have you believe—the number that remains the most consistent is the electoral college. A clear breakdown of the map shows that President Trump still has many more paths to that magic number of 270 than Kamala does.

The current consensus is that the swing states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, with other states that could potentially become swing states including New Hampshire, Virginia, Minnesota, and Maine. It is all but guaranteed that President Trump will hold the former swing states that have now become deep-red bastions: Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and North Carolina. This puts President Trump at 235 electoral votes, and Kamala at 226 electoral votes.

Realistically, however, it is increasingly clear that the state of Georgia is all but guaranteed to go back to President Trump’s column by a decisive margin in November. Decided by less than 13,000 “votes” in the 2020 election, Georgia was one of the most egregious examples of widespread fraud in a year filled with fraudulent activities. And it is Georgia, more than any other state, that has cracked down on voter fraud ahead of November.

Remember that so-called “Jim Crow 2.0” law over which the media and Democrats completely lost their minds? Major League Baseball withdrew its All-Star game from Atlanta out of protest, with many other left-wing companies threatening to boycott the Peach State. Democrats sued to overturn the law, but it was upheld multiple times in court.

When it was finally time to put the law to the test in the 2022 midterms, the results spoke for themselves. In 2018, the average margin of victory for statewide Republican candidates that year, from governor down to state superintendent of schools, was 3.9%. In 2022, by contrast, the average margin increased to 7.3%. With the sole exception of Senate nominee Herschel Walker, whose race was still the closest statewide contest in Georgia that year, every Republican—including Governor Brian Kemp—won by decisively larger margins than they had four years ago.

On paper, it appears that Georgia has done more to fix the voter fraud problem than most other states. The only other concern was that Governor Kemp might refuse to lend his political power in support of President Trump’s campaign due to bad blood between them. Those fears were shattered when the governor confirmed that he fully intends to “give [his] political machine” to Trump in November.

And so, Georgia can be added to Trump’s column as well. This gives President Trump a new electoral floor of 251: Just 19 votes away from the presidency.

On the other side of the country, another fiercely contested swing state that appears to lean back towards Trump is the 48th state: Arizona.

The closest state in 2020, Arizona was “won” by Biden by under 11,000 votes, once again marred by widespread and credible evidence of voter fraud. But since then, even despite numerous Republican losses in 2022 (as well as several crucial statewide victories), major steps have been taken to match the Democrats’ voter registration and ballot-harvesting games.

Thanks in large part to the work of Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk, Republican voter registration has skyrocketed in Arizona: The GOP now holds a record-high margin over Democrats, with over 242,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. Most recently, the GOP flipped Yuma County from majority Democrat to majority Republican. Turning Point Action, TPUSA’s 501(c)(4) branch, has already committed to harvesting over 100,000 ballots in the swing states, with a heavy focus on Arizona, where Turning Point is headquartered. If even a fraction of these ballots are successfully chased down for Donald Trump, it will completely override the minuscule margin Democrats managed to scrounge up in 2020.

Like Georgia, Arizona is another state where concerns have been raised about a moderate faction of the state party that carries significant weight, with little love lost for the 45th president. But recently, just like Governor Kemp, former Governor Doug Ducey, a major figure in the Arizona GOP’s moderate wing, announced his complete support for President Trump, in yet another major step towards a unified front in November.

Literally and figuratively next to Arizona is another state that continues to show signs of being much more likely to vote for President Trump than the Kamala/Walz ticket: Nevada.

Despite having not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, the Silver State appears to be leaning much more heavily in Trump’s favor than even some of the Rust Belt states, in what can only be described as a major political realignment within the last four years. Some have attributed it to the ongoing massive rightward shift in Hispanics, which make up a major portion of Nevada’s population; some have pointed to the migration of many ex-Californians, who are actually not making the state more blue, but may indeed be helping it to flip in the other direction; and others have pointed to a decline in the strength of the Nevada Democratic Party, particularly after the death of its kingmaker, former Senator Harry Reid, and an ongoing civil war within the party ever since then.

The result? In one of the few bright spots for the GOP in an otherwise disappointing cycle, Nevada elected Republicans to the posts of Governor and Lieutenant Governor in 2022. Although Republican nominee Adam Laxalt lost the U.S. Senate race that year to popular incumbent Catherine Cortez-Masto, his margin of just 0.77%—less than 8,000 votes—was the closest of any Senate candidate in the country that year.

Even after Kamala’s ascension and the media-manufactured “honeymoon period,” Trump still leads decisively in the state. Among the many other factors mentioned above, Trump’s revolutionary proposal of “no tax on tips” has been credited with his steady support in the service industry-heavy state, even leading to an endorsement by the Culinary Workers Union.

Lastly, although there are other states to consider, the last one worth covering in-depth is the biggest swing state of them all: Pennsylvania.

When considering the various key demographics, trends, and top campaign issues at play, Pennsylvania could be the easiest of the Rust Belt states for President Trump to flip, and the most rewarding.

Many swing states, despite the artificial media hype, are not happy about the Democratic Party’s bait-and-switch that replaced “Scranton Joe” Biden with the San Francisco liberal Kamala Harris. Nowhere is this more evident than in Pennsylvania where even though the “Scranton Joe” persona was a total fabrication, it was a fabrication that ultimately worked.

Even putting aside the voter fraud that most certainly changed the results of the 2020 election, the fact remains that multiple key voting blocs were more comfortable with voting for Biden than they were for Hillary Clinton, even if they still supported Trump. Biden had better margins against Trump among men, White voters, older voters, and the working class than Hillary did. Those same voters, especially in Pennsylvania, are far less likely to be as enthusiastic about Kamala.

From her radical stance of wanting to ban all fracking to her support for mass immigration and outsourcing American manufacturing jobs, Kamala is as far removed from the priorities of the Rust Belt as one could possibly get.

Even the fiasco of her running mate selection was a disaster in this crucial swing state. As if it wasn’t bad enough when she very publicly rejected the state’s Governor Josh Shapiro due to the demands of the anti-Semitic wing of the party, her eventual selection somehow managed to make the situation even worse. The ongoing stolen valor scandal that has engulfed Tim Walz’s candidacy will not be lost on many of the veterans living in the Keystone State, one of the highest veteran populations in the country.

It should come as no surprise, then, that the one and only swing state where the Trump/Vance campaign is actually outspending the Harris/Walz campaign is none other than Pennsylvania. The Trump campaign understands the irreplaceable role that Pennsylvania plays in the electoral college. If that state flips red, Kamala’s path to a promotion all but vanishes from existence.

Here is the simplest electoral math for which the Trump campaign could make a play: Assuming he holds all the states he won in 2020, he only needs to flip Georgia and Pennsylvania. That right there would instantly put him at the 270 needed to cross the finish line, even if he were to lose all of the other swing states. At that point, any other state he adds to his total would be a bonus that would expand his overall victory.

Assuming he still flips Georgia, Trump could also flip just Arizona and any one of the three Rust Belt states, and he crosses the 270 threshold no matter what. Or, if he were to somehow lose Georgia but flip Pennsylvania, he would only need Arizona and Nevada, which would put him at 271.

All this is to say that President Trump’s path to victory is a much smaller puzzle, needing only two or three pieces at the absolute most to complete the picture. The electoral burden is still overwhelmingly on the Democrats, who need to win at least three to four states, on average, just to barely get over the top.

Is it impossible for Kamala to win? Obviously not. Many fraudulent practices are still in place from 2020, and of course, anything can happen between now and November. But when one puts aside the hysteria of the mainstream media, obsession with mostly fake polls, and the fleeting trends of social media, the smart bet is still on the 45th President becoming the 47th President in November.