Earlier this month, economic conditions triggered the most reliable recession indicator, and we saw a huge market sell-off shortly after. Despite this, the mainstream media is working overtime to convince the public that a recession isn't coming. Why would they do this? Because election-year recessions can cripple the party in power.

No one wants a recession, especially after three and a half years of Bidenomics, but pretending that one isn't coming won't prevent it from happening. Two new indicators are pointing to a recession, and we should all be bracing for it.

"A cooling labor market is raising concerns that the U.S. economy might be heading toward a recession after all this year, instead of making the soft landing projected by most experts," reports Newsweek. "Housing expert and journalist Lance Lambert shared data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showing that the country's labor force growth has slowed down and unemployment has risen over the past 12 months."

In a couple of posts on X/Twitter, Lambert addressed these indicators.

The pandemic/post-pandemic economy is unique in many ways

But if economists are going to tell us to disregard many traditional recession indicators, then it's fair to ask them what economic data would they need to see roll over in order to be concerned?

— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) August 13, 2024

Newsweek's piece continued:

Data compiled by Lambert for ResiClub found that, over the past 12 months, the size of the U.S. labor force grew by 1,316,000; during that same period, the number of unemployed workers increased by 1,259,000.

The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in July—its highest level since October 2021— while the U.S. economy created only 114,000 jobs, the second-lowest monthly gain in more than four years.

A slower gain was only reported in April 2024, when only 108,000 jobs were created. On top of that, the United States Department of Labor dramatically revised June's job growth figure to 179,000 from the 205,000 job gain initially reported.

Even if we're not in a recession or headed for one, nearly 60% of Americans believe that we are in a recession now, and at least one indicator suggests that there's a good chance they are right.

"The economists Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez recently released the details of a recession indicator that builds on the widely cited Sahm rule," Business Insider reported this week. "The measure uses the Sahm rule's procedure for unemployment and pairs it with the difference between the three-month moving average of the vacancy rate and its past-12-month maximum."

When the indicator shows a difference of 0.3 percentage points, a recession may have started. A difference of 0.8 points is a definite recession.

Using data from July, the indicator is at 0.5 percentage points, nodding to a 40% probability of a recession that could have started as early as March, Michaillat and Saez said in a paper.

The economists added that the indicator worked for recessions going back to 1930, while Sahm's worked only back to 1960.

No one wants a recession, but pretending that things are just fine won't do anyone any good. Americans should understand that conditions indicate that a recession is coming — if it's not here already — and plan accordingly.