Will the United States and its allies do more than make hollow threats?

Iran has joined China and North Korea in supplying arms to Russia. The intensity of the assault on Ukraine has left Russia suffering shortages, and Moscow’s solution is to tin-cup friends and partners for weapons. The problem was predictable; Russian President Vladimir Putin chose to push a pace of combat that the Kremlin simply couldn’t maintain alone.

Iran Supplying Short-Range Missiles

Recent reporting reveals that Iran is providing short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Based on Iran’s lackluster success in its attack on Israel in April, depending on Iranian technology could be a gamble. Still, Moscow may view Tehran’s assistance as an “any port in a storm” opportunity. Nonetheless, as Reuters explained:

“Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine … Russian defense ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360.”

The Fath-360 tactical ballistic missile is ground-launched with an effective range of 19 to 75 miles. Mounted on trucks, the system is configured using six canisters, each containing rockets with a 330-pound high explosive warhead. Similar to the longer-range US Highly Mobile Artillery Rocket System provided to the Ukrainian military, the Fath-360 is less accurate and uses the Russian Global Navigation Satellite System for guidance. This sale will enable Russian ground forces to use the shorter-range Iranian missile while reserving its inventory of longer-range missiles for targets beyond the front lines.

In the early months of the Ukraine invasion, Russia launched thousands of missiles, depleting its immediate stores. Recently, The New York Times reported that the Russian-produced cruise missile Kh-101 was launched soon after being manufactured. “The Russian cruise missile that slammed into a children’s hospital in Kyiv last month left behind clues about Russia’s defense industry after more than two years of war. The missile, a Kh-101 filled with about 1,000 pounds of explosives, was made this spring before the attack,” according to the NYT.

The short cycle time from production to launch makes the supply chain very sensitive to disruption. Dwindling war materials include other weapons and ammunition that Russia must use to continue the invasion. Diverting equipment intended for Russia’s foreign military sales indicates that Moscow is experiencing a shortage of weapons. “Russia is struggling to provide ammunition and weapons for its war in Ukraine, according to Western officials,” BBC reported. One such official who spoke to the outlet also said that Russia requisitioning equipment from its defense industry originally intended to be delivered to other countries.

In addition to Iran, Moscow turned to North Korea for help. In February 2024, a Reuters dispatch claimed: “North Korea has shipped about 6,700 containers carrying millions of munitions to Russia since July [2023] to support its war against Ukraine, in a sign of ongoing arms transfers, South Korean media reported.” The shipment reportedly included three million 152 mm and 500,000 122 mm artillery shells. North Korean munitions factories providing shells for Russia are at total capacity.

Russia Tin-Cupping for More Weapons and Ammunition

Numerous reports on Ukrainian forces running low on weapons and ammunition have appeared in Western media. The Kyiv government has been dependent on the United States and other NATO countries to sustain its battle tempo against the Russians, yet – despite economic sanctions against Moscow to hamper its war-making potential – sophisticated missiles and other weapons continue to flow rapidly from the factory floor directly to the front lines. Iran, as an alternate source for the short-range ballistic missiles, will help.

The United States and the rest of NATO have issued strong statements condemning the transfer of the Fath-360 missiles from Iran to Russia, claiming they are prepared to respond with severity against Iran if the sale goes through – but the threat rings hollow. Since the war began, Iran has been supplying Russia with hundreds of one-way Shahed-136 attack drones unimpeded by America and its allies.

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.