Mixed messages from US and global agencies range from certain to fuzzy.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), in a waffle-worded revelation to Congress, explained that Iran “may” have resumed its nuclear weapons development. In a July 2024 abbreviated, cryptic, unclassified summary of its assessment of Iran’s nuclear program, the ODNI concluded Iran had made advancements in its nuclear material enrichment program.

Report on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Not Precise

Well, the US Intelligence Community (IC) has simply reiterated what the International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) has been reporting for the past two years. Iran’s accelerated production of fissile bomb-making materials is the worst-kept secret in the geopolitical world. Nonetheless, the ODNI reported last month:

“Iran continues to increase the size of its uranium stockpile, increase its enrichment capacity, and develop, manufacture, and operate advanced centrifuges. Tehran has the infrastructure and experience to quickly produce weapons-grade uranium, at multiple facilities, if it chooses to do so. Iran probably will consider installing more advanced centrifuges, further increasing its enriched uranium stockpile, or enriching uranium up to 90 percent in response to additional sanctions, attacks, or censure against its nuclear program.”

The report explained that Iran now has an inventory of ballistic missiles that eclipses any other country in the region. Additionally, Tehran’s military industry “continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of these systems . . . [P]robably [Iran] is incorporating lessons learned from its missile and unmanned aerial vehicle attack against Israel in April.” That’s a prudent effort on Iran’s part since the 300-plus ballistic missile, drone, and cruise missile assault on Israel was, at best, unremarkable.

Particularly frustrating for anyone attempting to get a straight answer on the Iran nuclear program is the ODNI’s use of comments such as, “During the past year, it has modulated its production and inventory of 60-percent uranium.” What does that mean? Modulated means to “move up or down.” Most analysts don’t believe Iran has “modulated” its inventory of 60 percent uranium downward. The notion that Iran “probably will consider” enriching uranium to 90 percent is imprecise, belying an attempt to fuzz up the message. “Probably” is indefinite. “Considering” is not doing. The Iranians could be just musing about obtaining nuclear weapons.

The IAEC’s February 2024 report was much more informative, explaining that the Iranian Fuel Enrichment Plant had installed critical components of “17 cascades (a series of centrifuges that produce in sequence ever more refined fissile material) in the additional enrichment unit,” and the purpose-built facility “had been completed.” Furthermore, at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, “On 21 February 2024, the Agency verified that the installation of the necessary infrastructure for the planned eight new cascades . . . was ongoing.” Such assessments are more useful than the vague language used by the US Intelligence Community.

IAEC Director More Pessimistic

With each IAEC evaluation, Iran’s potential to possess nuclear capability seems more likely. “Iran is ‘weeks rather than months’ away from having enough enriched uranium to develop a nuclear bomb, Rafael Mariano Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency,” told the German news source Deutsche Welle in April 2024.

American policymakers cannot discount the impact of rising Middle East tensions since Hamas terrorists attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, causing the current 11-month-old war. The potential for a broader, more intense conflict is exceptionally high since reports that Israeli forces assassinated Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in downtown Tehran. “The war has upended efforts by the US government to de-escalate tensions with the Islamic Republic as it sought to contain the nuclear crisis,” London’s Financial Times reported.

However, US efforts to “de-escalate tensions” have not been a resounding success. The potential for Iran to possess nuclear weapons, whether immediately or in the future, adds an uncertain dynamic to the concept of deterrence pursued by Israel and the United States. “President Biden has repeatedly said that the US will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, raising the possibility of military action if Washington was to determine that Tehran has embarked on an intensive effort to build a nuclear device,” The Wall Street Journal observed.

Unfortunately, the handwringing, dithering, and indecision that have been the hallmark of the Biden-Harris administration do not build confidence that US diplomacy is stopping Iran’s march toward nuclear capability. The challenge will then fall to Israel. If history is a predictor of future outcomes, and Tehran becomes a near-term nuclear threat, Israel will put an end to its nuclear aspirations. The Biden-Harris national security team will be spectators in the bleachers.

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.