DUBAI — President Biden isn’t the only one frustrated by the inability of Israel to strike a cease-fire deal with Hamas to stop — at least for a little while — the carnage in Gaza.

Powerful Arab nations have seen promising moves toward a game-changing new relationship with Israel come to a screeching halt with the war ignited by Hamas’s October 7 terrorist rampage through southern Israel. And, again like Mr. Biden, regional leaders are growing increasingly frustrated with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s offensive against Hamas militants as Palestinian civilian casualties mount and with what they say in Mr. Netanyahu’s failure to offer a political vision for the days the bullets stop flying in Gaza.

Officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the two most influential of the Gulf Arab states, lashed out in recent days against Israel‘s incursion into Rafah and statements by Mr. Netanyahu suggesting the two countries are on board to contribute to the Israeli leader’s ‘day after’ security plans for a post-war Gaza.

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“The United Arab Emirates denounces the statements of the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, about calling on the state to participate in the civil administration of the Gaza Strip, which is under Israeli occupation,” UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan wrote earlier this month in a post on the social media platform X.

During an interview with Dr. Phil Primetime, Netanyahu suggested that the UAE and Saudi Arabia could play a role in the postwar governance of Palestinian territory.

“The UAE stresses that the Israeli prime minister does not have any legal capacity to take this step, and the state refuses to be drawn into any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip,” Mr. Abdullah added.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry also warned against the Israel Defense Forces’ “displacement of Palestinian civilians and the lack of safe havens for them, given the massive destruction caused by the Israeli war machine.”

The criticisms reflect a new reality in the region in the wake of the Hamas attack — any diplomatic outreach to Israel has been put on ice as the plight of the Palestinians in Gaza dominates the news here.

Before the Israeli takeover of Gaza‘s crossing point with Egypt, which is considered one of Hamas’ last strongholds in the strip, the Emiratis, along with the U.S. and other Arab partners, had been working to achieve a cease-fire.

“Every time we approached an agreement, it crumbled,” said Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political science professor at the United Arab Emirates University.” The UAE is part of a coalition with Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to achieve a cease-fire with the Palestinian Authority. However, the chances of success are slim due to Mr. Netanyahu and [Hamas’ Gaza military chief Yahya] Sinwar’s unwillingness to consent to the truce.”

In addition to averting a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, Washington has tried to keep alive prospects for a grand bargain in the region, with Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel while signing a new defense pact with the U.S. — and presenting a united front against Iran and its network of allies in the region.

During meetings held in Riyadh last month with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud emphasized that Gaza‘s reconstruction would only take place once a cease-fire is established and a plan for the Palestinian state implemented. 

Mr. al-Saud insisted that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are still in talks to create a reliable path towards Palestinian statehood, emphasizing that Arab countries would only consider the possibility of an Arab peacekeeping force in Gaza as part of a more extensive political solution.

These prerequisites are non-starters for the Israeli prime minister, who has vowed to block the creation of an independent Palestine. 

Costs and benefits

Ahmed Al-Shehri, a retired Saudi Army colonel, said de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks to create a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, based on the 1967 borders, with guaranteed access to land, sea and air borders. 

“The Saudi prince and foreign minister have stated that developing a relationship with Israel will have costs. … The cost Saudi Arabia expects to pay to advance peace will depend on Israel‘s commitment to creating a Palestinian state,” said Mr. Al-Shehri. 

The colonel’s views reflect a shift in Riyadh’s strategic thinking after the long-standing covert conflict between Israel and Iran escalated into the open last month with an Israeli airstrike that killed several members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, including two generals.

“Iran’s missile and drone attack on Israel missed its targets, indicating its weak capabilities. The attack failed to achieve strategic objectives and was expected by regional states and intelligence agencies,” Col. Al-Shehri observed. 

Crown Prince Mohammed, who is widely known as MBS, has reportedly given orders to his air force to intercept missiles fired from Iran. These missiles were targeting Israel and flying over Saudi airspace. According to experts, this move was made to maintain strong ties with the U.S. military, which is seen as crucial until the crown prince secures his position as the country’s ruler to succeed his ailing father.

However, MBS’s Vision 2030 projects, which aim to modernize Saudi Arabia’s economy and culture, have led to budget deficits in the kingdom’s treasury, despite the country’s vast oil wealth. 

Due to budget constraints, some large-scale projects, such as the planned 100-mile-long Neom “linear city,” have been canceled or scaled down.

Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud is 88 years old. The 38-year-old crown prince has launched economic and cultural reforms popular among the younger population. Still, some ruling family members are uncomfortable with his ambitious projects and his shift towards a more nationalistic and less religious approach.

The crown prince has also shifted away from exclusive reliance on a U.S. security umbrella. 

Last March, Bin Salman worked with Chinese mediators who brokered a surprise resumption of diplomatic relations with Iran, which Tehran and Riyadh had cut in 2016 due to Iran’s nuclear program and support for Shia Muslim proxies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen. 

“While the Biden administration pursues normalization [with Israel] for their political interests and Netanyahu‘s desire to leave a lasting legacy, the kingdom is building solid relations with Russia and China,” said Colonel Al-Shehri, who sees Washington’s support for the kingdom as wavering. 

Even as Gulf states pledged millions of dollars in a UN-led donor’s conference for Gaza earlier this month, regional observers insisted they aimed to help Palestinians survive the war rather than to support Israeli security plans.

“The UAE is ready to take the lead in offering any essential aid to the two million new Palestinian refugees who are currently displaced,” said the Emirati political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla. “However, it’s important to note that our attention won’t be shifted away from the reconstruction of Gaza, which is a separate issue.”