Taking advantage of the U.S. Navy’s overstretched resources, China is operating an aircraft carrier and escort warships in a rather interesting area of the Philippine Sea.

Japan reported that the Shandong carrier and its escorts, including one of China’s excellent Type-055 air defense cruisers, were operating 261 miles south of Miyako-jima island on Monday. As shown on my annotated Google map below, this puts the flotilla close to Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan.

While the flotilla is conducting standard exercises in international waters, the timing and position of this deployment are notable. It allows China to flex its muscles against two American treaty defense allies, the Philippines and Japan, and one close partner, Taiwan. The insignificant U.S. Navy presence in the region is thus a strategic embarrassment for Washington. It allows China to credibly present itself as the ascendant military force amid an undeniable American overstretch.

The United States should have a carrier strike group relatively close to the Shandong, operating around Guam. The problem is that the carrier in question, the Abraham Lincoln, has been sent to the Middle East amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran. As I noted last week, an absent Pacific offset for the Abraham Lincoln underlines the Navy’s insufficient combatant fleet size. If a crisis were to develop involving the Philippines, Taiwan, or Japan, the Navy would have a very difficult time quickly getting forces on the scene. While the Shandong is likely being shadowed by a U.S. attack submarine for intelligence collection purposes, this cannot compete with the public symbolism that a major surface warship would offer.

The Navy’s challenge is very real. Its overstretch is significantly exacerbated by the need to extend deployments to keep ships available near possible or active global hot spots. This leads to crew fatigue and excess maintenance delays when ships return to port. Long shipbuilding delays also endure. Navy leaders, manufacturers, and politicians such as Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) and Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) all share the blame here. The problem is that the politicians put pork before national security, and the Navy much prefers punishing lower ranks to punishing its admirals for constantly redesigning ships that were basically ready to go.

China is the beneficiary. Forced far away from China by its anti-ship ballistic missiles, the Navy’s aircraft carriers might provide limited combat value in the event of actual war. Still, they represent an expression of American resolve and commitment to allies in much need of it. In the same way, the Shandong’s deployment represents a clear signal of China’s countermanding ambition.

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The Abraham Lincoln’s absence comes at a particularly bad time. Both the Philippines and Taiwan are facing escalating Chinese aggression in their exclusive economic zones. They need American deterrent power at their back.

But this week at least, China rules the waves.