The National Instant Background Check System (NICS), run by the FBI, shows July of 2024 is the fifth-highest July for both firearm sales and NICS background checks. According to the adjusted figures put out by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF), July of 2024 is the 60th month in a row where over a million firearms were sold in the month. NICS has recorded five straight years where over a million firearms were sold through the NICS system in the United States each month. The number of firearms over the five years has been much more than the 60 million indicated by “over a million” per month.

In the five years from August 2019 through July 2024, there have been nearly 86 million firearms sold through the NICS system, averaging about 17.3 million per year.

Firearm sales in the NICS system first topped 10 million in 2011. They soared to nearly 14 million as President Obama sought and gained a second term in 2012, dropping during the peaceful and prosperous years of the Trump presidency. In the election year of 2020, the all time record for firearm sales in a year was set at over 21 million firearm sales, many of them to new gun owners. NSSF estimates over 22 million people became new gun owners in the 2020s.

The best estimate of the private stock of firearms in the United States puts the number over 500 million privately owned firearms in the nation. The July firearm sales put the number at 510 million firearms in the USA. To protect proprietary information, the ATF will not release the actual numbers of firearms manufactured, imported, and exported for a year after the manufacturers’ reports.

The 510 million figure is based on an estimate of .866 new firearms imported and manufactured for each firearm sold in the NICS system. About 13% of firearms sold inside the NICS system are firearms that were already in the system but were purchased by another buyer.

Handgun sales in July 2024 were slightly lower than in July 2023, while long gun, multiple gun sales, and “other” are a bit higher. The total firearm sales increased about 4% compared to last year. Court decisions against the ATF on the new rules for bump stocks and pistol braces, amid the general reining in of unconstitutional administrative power, may have increased incentives to purchase long guns and receivers in the “other” category. Firearms recorded as others are most commonly receivers, which could be completed into either a long gun or a handgun.

It appears the assassination attempt against former President and current presidential candidate Donald Trump has created heightened anxiety about the stability of the United States political system, prompting more people to purchase firearms. There has been a gradual decrease in sales since the record set in 2020. July 2024 has bucked the trend, with sales increasing about 4% compared to July 2023. It seems likely the run of over a million gun sales a month will continue into the foreseeable future.

Social unrest may continue if either Vice President Harris, the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, or former President Donald Trump, the Republican Party nominee, is elected in November 2024.

About Dean Weingarten:

Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.