According to a Monday I&I/TIPP poll, former president Donald Trump is now ahead of President Biden among independents.

With third-party candidates included, the total poll showed Biden and Trump essentially equal, with 39 percent of the vote each and 38 percent for Trump. Twelve percent more opted for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., one percent for Cornel West, another independent, and one percent for Jill Stein, the Green Party nominee.

In a head-to-head match, the poll also revealed that independents prefer Trump over Biden by a five-point lead, with 15% of respondents still undecided. When independents vote for third-party candidates, Trump’s lead over Biden increases to eight points, from 33 to 25 percent. RFK Jr. receives eighteen percent, followed by West and Stein, who receive two percent each.

This is noteworthy, according to TIPP Insights, because “independents backed Biden 54% to Trump’s 41% in the last election.”

The poll also found that Trump had gained ground in other demographic categories. The I&I/TIPP results illustrate that the situation has essentially reversed this time around.

In 2020, African Americans voted for Biden with 87% of the vote, while Trump received only 12% of the vote. However, in 2024, that has drastically changed: black voters support Biden by 59%, down 28% from 4 years ago, while they support Trump by 15%, up 3 percentage points. It is a 31-point swing overall.

“Biden criticized Trump in 2020 among Hispanics, 65% to 32%. The I&I/TIPP Poll for this month shows that Hispanics prefer Biden 47%, Trump 26%, and Kennedy 13%.”

Furthermore, we asked poll participants to predict the election’s winner irrespective of their personal political preferences. In general, more people—37 percent against 34 percent for Biden—think Trump will win than Biden.

1,264 people took the survey between May 1 and May 3, 2024. Its margin of error is ± 2.8 percent.