The concept of the “Fourth Turning” has captivated the attention of sociologists, historians, and the general public alike. Introduced by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe in their seminal 1997 book “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy,” this theory suggests that history unfolds in a cyclical pattern, marked by recurring generational archetypes and significant societal transformations.

The Theory of Generational Cycles

Strauss and Howe’s theory posits that history moves in cycles, each lasting roughly 80 to 100 years, known as a saeculum. Each saeculum is divided into four turnings, each spanning about 20-25 years. These turnings are periods of societal mood and behaviour, characterised by distinct generational archetypes that shape and are shaped by the prevailing cultural, political, and economic conditions.

1. The High: This first turning follows a crisis and is marked by strong institutions, collective confidence, and a sense of purpose. Individualism is downplayed in favor of a more unified society. The most recent High occurred in the post-World War II era, during the late 1940s and 1950s, characterized by economic prosperity and institutional stability.
2. The Awakening: The second turning is a time of spiritual upheaval and questioning of established norms. It often leads to a cultural revolution, as people seek personal and spiritual autonomy. The 1960s and 1970s exemplified the last Awakening, with movements advocating for civil rights, women’s liberation, and environmentalism.
3. The Unraveling: The third turning sees the weakening of institutions and a shift towards individualism. Society becomes more fragmented, and the sense of collective purpose diminishes. The late 1980s through the 2000s represented this period, marked by cultural wars, political polarization, and institutional distrust.
4. The Crisis: The fourth turning is a period of major upheaval and transformation, often involving wars, revolutions, or other significant disruptions. It is a time when society redefines itself and establishes new institutional structures. According to Strauss and Howe, the current Crisis began with the 2008 financial collapse and is expected to continue through the 2020s, potentially concluding with a major societal reformation.

Generational Archetypes

Each turning produces a distinct generational archetype, each with its own set of characteristics, values, and behaviors. These archetypes recur in a fixed order, shaping the cultural and political landscape of their time.

1. Prophets (Boomers): Born during or after a High, Prophets grow up as indulged children during an Awakening, come of age as self-absorbed young crusaders of an Unraveling, and age into moralistic leaders during a Crisis. The Baby Boomer generation (1943-1960) is the most recent example of this archetype.
2. Nomads (Generation X): Born during an Awakening, Nomads grow up as under-protected children during an Unraveling, come of age as alienated young adults during a Crisis, and age into pragmatic leaders during a High. Generation X (1961-1981) exemplifies this archetype.
3. Heroes (Millennials): Born during an Unraveling, Heroes grow up as increasingly protected children during a Crisis, come of age as team-oriented young optimists during a High, and age into energetic midlife leaders during an Awakening. Millennials (1982-2004) are the current Hero archetype.
4. Artists (Generation Z): Born during a Crisis, Artists grow up as overprotected children during a High, come of age as sensitive young adults during an Awakening, and age into empathetic leaders during an Unraveling. Generation Z (2005-present) represents this emerging archetype.

Implications and Criticisms

The Fourth Turning theory offers a framework for understanding historical patterns and forecasting future trends. Its implications suggest that we are currently in a period of profound change, potentially leading to a significant transformation of societal structures by the end of the 2020s.

Current geopolitical and societal changes, and the breakdown of trust between governments, and the people they are here to serve, have created a ominous vacuum. People across the globe have felt an unease for a while, and perhaps, this theory could explain why.

Conclusion

The Fourth Turning theory provides a compelling lens through which to view history and societal change. While it is not a definitive predictor of future events, it encourages us to consider the impact of generational dynamics on the evolution of society. As we navigate the current Crisis, understanding these patterns may offer valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.