A sharp drop in the number of migrants arrested after illegally entering the United States from Mexico could prompt President Joe Biden to ease his executive action that is credited, in part, for the turnaround.

In July, approximately 57,000 migrants were apprehended by the U.S. Border Patrol along the southwest border, according to federal data shared with the Washington Examiner.

The figure is the lowest since September 2020, when 54,771 people were arrested during the Trump administration, less than 25% of the 250,000 seen at its historic peak in December 2023.

The Biden administration’s sudden success stemming the flow of migrants across the border could come with unintended consequences if it walks back the June executive action that it has credited for slowing illegal immigration and set off a surge of migrants flooding into the country due to the pent-up demand.

“About 12,000 [arrests] total last 7 days so it’s super slow right now. I’d imagine they could lift the proclamation if it continues to drop,” wrote a senior Border Patrol official in a text message. The official spoke on the condition of anonymity.

White House issues border proclamation

In the first week of June, following six months of diplomatic talks with Mexican counterparts to deter migrants from entering through the country to the U.S., Biden took executive action.

Biden invoked his authority to bar migrants from seeking asylum if they were intercepted by federal police not at a port of entry — primarily impacting people who walk or swim across the Mexico border.

Migrants who cross between entry points where vehicles and pedestrians are supposed to apply for inspection would be within the guardrails for being expelled or removed back to their country of origin.

The action affected migrants who entered illegally, not those who went to ports of entry to seek asylum.

Adam Isacson, director of defense oversight for human rights group the Washington Office on Latin America, said the proclamation was not an asylum ban but limited migrants’ ability to seek refuge.

“Under the Biden administration’s June asylum rule, for instance, Border Patrol agents no longer ask migrants if they fear deportation to their countries,” Isacson wrote in a July 26 newsletter. “Under what is called the ‘shout test,’ asylum seekers must voluntarily speak up and hope that their apprehending agents listen to them.”

Executive action leads to fewer crossings

The action quickly impacted the number of migrants trying to enter as arrests in June dropped from 117,901 in May to 83,536. July was reported by the Washington Examiner’s sources to be around 57,000.

The Biden administration touted in early July that it had carried out more than 120 international repatriation flights to more than 20 countries, including a large charter flight to China. The intense focus on removal flights has prompted migrants to rethink traveling to the U.S.

“I think it’s a combination of several things. Hard rhetoric always seems to be a factor, which is what the proclamation was,” said the senior Border Patrol official.

But Isacson warned that although the lower number of border arrests may benefit Democrats ahead of the election, it has failed to address the demand for help from migrants outside the U.S.

“While the reduced numbers create political space for Democratic candidates as the 2024 election nears, putting asylum out of reach does place some fleeing migrants in danger,” Isacson wrote.

Terminating the proclamation, if numbers continue to decline, could temporarily solve the problem of pent-up demand from south of the border.

Ending the border executive order

The process of lifting the ban has not been explained in detail by the DHS, though it could come in the very near future given that arrests averaged below 1,850 per day in July.

“The Biden administration’s June 5, 2024 asylum restriction rule states that, should the weekly average of migrant apprehensions drop below 1,500 per day for 3 weeks, and should the average remain below 2,500, then U.S. border authorities will no longer automatically deny asylum access to people who cross between ports of entry to ask for protection,” Isacson wrote.

If the 7-day average of migrant arrests each day stays below 1,500, the White House proclamation will automatically lift, which could send a message to migrants and human smugglers who profit from moving people from the border that they can enter the U.S.

“The suspension and limitation on entry will be discontinued 14 calendar days after the secretary makes a factual determination that there has been a 7-consecutive-calendar-day average of less than 1,500 encounters,” the proclamation states.

Once the ban is lifted, if arrests top a “7-consecutive-calendar-day average of 2,500 encounters or more,” the ban will go back into effect the following day. It will remain in place for 14 days after Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas determines there has been another 7-day average of less than 1,500 or Biden revokes the proclamation.

Biden officials specifically determined that the base threshold was 1,500 because that was the breaking point for Border Patrol to be able to carry out national security operations on the border and process as many people were in custody.

Aaron Reichlin-melnick, senior fellow for the American Immigration Council in Washington, D.C., suggested that any lifting of the proclamation will not have a major impact on border crossings.

“I think whether or not there is some kind of surge will depend primarily on messaging,” Reichlin-melnick wrote in a statement, adding that the Border Patrol would be able “to continue deporting a much higher percentage of people who cross.”

The challenge for the Biden administration would be communicating these stipulations given that smugglers could use any lifting of the proclamation to falsely tell migrants they will not be turned away at the border, according to Reichlin-melnick.

Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX), whose district runs along 800 miles of the southern border, argued that the proclamation still should not be lifted even if illegal immigration arrests continue to decline.

“1500 illegal crossings a day should not be the new normal — that is still 1500 too many. Signaling otherwise is a green light to traffickers and those they traffic,” Gonzales wrote in a text message.

“Once that system starts up again, it is very difficult to turn it back off and with cooler temperatures in the fall, an election around the corner — border experts have told me to expect more crossings than ever before,” said Gonzales.

The DHS did not comment on its plans.

How we got here

The border fell into “crisis,” according to Republicans, early on in 2021 as the number of people taken into custody jumped from 70,000 to 100,000, then 200,000 monthly.

The crisis was the result of a number of factors, including pent-up demand to leave countries with strict pandemic lockdowns, crashing economies throughout Latin America, and a less stringent administration in D.C. On Biden’s first day in office, he slashed former President Donald Trump’s border and immigration policies, sending a signal to the world that a new administration was in town.

Unlike previous upticks in illegal immigration at the southern border, the influx shortly after Biden’s arrival was increasingly comprised of people from faraway countries. For decades, Border Patrol agents have come across migrants from more than 150 countries, but in 2021, they began to see a greater number of people from abroad.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

Republicans and Democrats have fought for three years over who was to blame for the crisis. Democrats have blamed Republicans for adhering to Trump’s instruction last year and refusing to back a bipartisan Senate border bill that would have boosted security funding.

The House GOP impeached Mayorkas for falling asleep at the wheel as nearly 10 million people have been encountered trying to enter the country under Biden.