A must-win U.S. Senate seat appears to be slipping away from Democrats, putting Vice President Kamala Harris’s party on track to lose the upper chamber and threatening to leave the side locked out of congressional control if she wins the White House.

New numbers from Emerson College conducted with The Hill show that Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), the most vulnerable incumbent of the 2024 cycle, now sits two points behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, Bronze Star recipient, and one of the Republican Party’s strongest recruits. Sheehy leads Sen. Tester 48% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup with 5% of voters remaining undecided.

MONTANA POLL with @thehill

2024 US Senate Election

Tim Sheehy (R) 48%
Jon Tester (D) 46%
5% undecidedhttps://t.co/PCPb4jqH2M pic.twitter.com/AVOcnXz7gd

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) August 8, 2024

Tester, who is seeking his fourth six-year term, has served in the Senate since 2006 after eight years in the state Senate and an earlier career as a farmer. He narrowly escaped losses in both 2012 and 2018, but it appears the Republican Party of President Trump has finally caught up to him. The former president endorsed Sheehy early on, and he easily beat back primary challengers before facing Tester. He has an uphill battle on fundraising, and in June reported raising over $14 million and ending the month with $3 million on hand, according to filings with the Federal Elections Commission; in comparison, Sen. Tester has raised nearly $44 million in that time and holds nearly $11 million on hand in a state where advertising is comparably cheaper than large-city media markets.

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With the shift in polling, Democrats are now predicted to lose control of the Senate. Pollster Larry Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” ratings are taken as a gold standard in the industry, currently gives Republicans better chances at controlling 50 Senate seats in 2025 while he expects Democrats to hold 48 seats while two remain toss-ups. One of the latter is Montana, which may soon fall the GOP’s way. In addition to heavy outside spending in the race, Sen. Tester’s record is likely weighing down his numbers as well. In October of 2023, he was seen fleeing from cameras after ignoring questions about his votes against additional military funding for Israel. The incident came just weeks after the deadly October 7th attack by Hamas which left 1,400 Israelis dead and hundreds more taken hostage.

If Republicans are able to expand the map, their Senate numbers could go even higher. Conservative spitfire Kari Lake is predicted by Sabato to lose her Senate race in Arizona, but a poll in July showed her leading her Democratic rival, Congressman Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), by 2%. Bernie Moreno, a Trump-endorsed challenger to Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), has earned Lake’s endorsement. While he trails the embattled Democratic incumbent in the latest polls, according to FiveThirtyEight, Sabato rates the race as the nation’s only other toss-up.

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