The growing threat of a Chinese military attack makes Taiwan one of the most dangerous global flash points for years to come, according to a think tank report.

The report details military and nonmilitary methods Beijing is preparing to use to coerce the self-ruled island democracy into capitulating.

“Taiwan’s strategic significance and the far-ranging damage from its coercive annexation by China would be a devastating loss from which the United States could neither fully retreat nor readily recover,” the report said.

---

---

The report says Chinese President Xi Jinping will soon reach the apex of his power and thus be free to pursue his announced goal of taking over the island, located 100 miles off the southern Chinese coast.

The mounting danger requires stronger American deterrence, said the report, noting that catastrophic results could include the loss of access to Taiwan’s world-class advanced computer chip manufacturing sector.

“Given its irreplaceable importance for American national interests, safeguarding Taiwan should be urgently and relentlessly prioritized in U.S. defense and foreign policy efforts,” the report said.

The 168-page report, “Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat,” was written by Gabriel Collins and Andrew Erickson. Mr. Collins is a former China analyst at the Pentagon, and Mr. Erickson is a professor of strategy at the Naval War College. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy produced the report and released it earlier this month.

The authors argue that Taiwan represents the same kind of flash point as West Berlin, part of the divided German capital during the Cold War that epitomized the ideological confrontation between the communist Soviet bloc and the democratic West.

In addition to preparing for a full-scale military assault, China’s military planners are weighing a maritime blockade of the island or engaging in measures short of outright warfare to seize control of Taiwan’s world-level microelectronics industry without damage, the report says.

The future of Taiwan is at risk, and the danger of Chinese control is growing.

“Coercive annexation of Taiwan by China is among the most consequential potential security contingencies the United States faces against a formidable adversary,” the report said. “The situation could scarcely be more urgent.”

The report includes Adm. John C. Aquilino’s warning in March. As Indo-Pacific commander, Adm. Aquilino told Congress that all signs point to the Chinese military meeting Mr. Xi’s directive to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The admiral said actions by the People’s Liberation Army “indicate their ability to meet Xi’s preferred timeline to unify Taiwan with mainland China by force if directed.”

Far-reaching consequences

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan using force or coercion could have consequences far beyond the region.

The U.S. loss of access to Taiwan would create a severe shortage of semiconductors needed to fuel its technology-driven economy and allow China to complicate access to other major trading partners and markets in Asia.

Regarding regional alliances with Japan, the Philippines and South Korea, U.S. credibility could “disintegrate” as a result of a Chinese takeover.

Japan and South Korea would likely build nuclear weapons, “resulting in nuclear proliferation on a grand scale,” the report said.

The report republishes an Indo-Pacific Command briefing slide explaining why Taiwan is important. The slide states that China’s assimilation of Taiwan, with or without a fight, would significantly shift the global balance of power in Beijing’s favor. The briefing said China would gain an ideological win for communism over democracy, military and strategic advantages for China’s power projection, and domination of global trade chokepoints and sea lanes.

In the past three years, Chinese military drills have focused on practicing for a Taiwan invasion. The report said one amphibious assault drill used seven militarized roll-on, roll-off car ferries.

Recent Chinese military activities around Taiwan, such as deploying hundreds of warplanes and scores of warships, are designed to support “non-military tools.”

Those include economic, diplomatic, cultural, informational, law enforcement, organized crime, “gray zone” warfare and technological measures.

“A PRC endeavor to coercively assume control of Taiwan with the least possible escalation is a substantially higher probability than a large D-Day-style invasion, at least as an initial attempt,” said the report, using the acronym for the People’s Republic of China.

The report said the danger of losing Taiwan will peak this decade.

“There is no political-historical prize more tempting to Xi than Taiwan, and no greater target of concerted preparations to generate actionable options for coercion,” the report said. “As a result, U.S. and allied policymakers have now fully entered a decade of maximum danger, and the strategic stakes are commensurately high.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in 2022 that the United States is facing a “decisive decade” pitting the U.S. and its allies against those “bent on imperial aggression.”

Deterring China from a takeover of Taiwan will be difficult because the Chinese Communist Party has tied its legitimacy to controlling Taiwan under a policy of national rejuvenation.

As a result, Mr. Xi is unlikely to “self-deter” from attacking the island, the report said.

Noting the parallels between Taiwan and Berlin, the report said the island is the central flash point in a new cold war with China. “It is an outpost of liberty, prosperity and democracy living in the shadow of an authoritarian superpower and demonstrating daily that Chinese heritage is no barrier to pluralistic diversity, democracy, rule of law or freedom,” the report said.

“It is not too late to hold the line where it matters most, but time is indeed running out.”

Mr. Erickson said China has already achieved the most dramatic military buildup since World War II.

“The more you know about Xi’s relentless ramp-up, the more concerning it is,” he said. “The risk window is here and now. Some of America’s most vital interests hang in the balance.”