Vice President Kamala Harris will today, August 6, announce her running mate for the November election. And while the usual leaks have thus far been avoided, the hour draws near for the current White House number two to make a decision that could secure or sink her candidacy in its nascent form. The “veepstakes” are high, and the wrong step could prove politically fatal.

Shoring Up the Weak Spots

The trio of names most circulated include Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, and Gov. Tim Waltz of Minnesota. They each share certain characteristics that would prove valuable on the campaign trail; most notably, their easy style of communicating – something Ms. Harris, known for her bemusing word salads, is sorely lacking.

Since President Joe Biden made the decision not to run for re-election, Harris has been the assumed frontrunner, confirmed with a digital rollcall coronation that was unchallenged. And yet, in the two weeks that have passed, she has failed to take part in a single press conference. Harris – or her campaign team – understand that she is best left to scripted events where she remains unchallenged on her records in office and as a prosecutor. In those settings, she has also thus far been able to avoid the ultimate questions regarding her boss’ cognitive decline: What did she know and when did she know it?

With an attack dog potential VP at her side, she can skip the media scrums, and leave the defense to one who has the skills for it. Shapiro, Waltz, and Kelly all fit that particular bill.

Veepstakes Top Three

Each man carries a potential benefit to the top ticket, but also liabilities. Here’s the scorecard on the hopeful contenders:

Tim Waltz: Seen as the least likely to be offered the job, the 5-year governor of Minnesota has a history of plain speaking, a somewhat populist progressive bent, and a record of doing well electorally in traditionally Republican districts.

Pros – As chair of the Democratic Governors Association, he has both name recognition and a national network that could be called upon as he hits the campaign trail. He also has the progressive bona fides that have become almost a prerequisite in left-leaning politics. The Guardian newspaper noted that since 2022, he has delivered “a laundry-list of progressive policy wins such as free school meals, abortion protections, gun restrictions and legal marijuana.”

Cons – Waltz once held an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association, which, in the wake of the 2017 Las Vegas shooting, swiftly turned to an “F” as he abandoned his former stances.

Another negative is that he doesn’t necessarily bring anything to the table in terms of the Electoral College. Joe Biden won Waltz’s state by seven points in 2020, and, in fact, it has not opted for a Republican presidential contender since Richard Nixon in 1972 – even denying Ronald Reagan, thanks to hometown boy Walter Mondale.

Mark Kelly: The Arizona senator has – since his election in 2020 – been a moderate voice in state politics. As a former astronaut and combat aviator, he holds a status few other politicos can hope to match.

Pros – Representing an area that has been largely regarded as a GOP stronghold since the 1950s, he has walked a fine line in trying to remain somewhere near the center, a feat his wife, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, managed with some success. Joe Biden took Arizona by the slimmest of margins (11,000 votes) in 2020, making it only the second time a Democrat has won the state since Harry Truman in 1948. If Kelly’s popularity holds strong, the state’s 11 Electoral College votes could prove decisive.

Cons –  Kamala Harris might not want to choose someone who does not have the backing of her party’s progressive faction. In Kelly’s efforts to navigate the blue waters of a red state, he has publicly sided against Joe Biden’s plans to ease asylum requirements during the pandemic, endorsed the rebuilding of sections of the border wall, and split with the president over COVID measures. While the progressive element remains the minority, it is also one of the most vocal and active; without their full-throated backing, the current VP might find “Kamalamentum” losing some of its urgency.

Notably, Kelly may have accidentally informed the public that he was already out of the running with an “ill-worded” X post in which he wrote, “I spent my life serving in the Navy and at NASA, where the mission always comes first… Now my mission is serving Arizonans.” The post was swiftly deleted as social media users took it to mean that he had not been offered the spot.

Josh Shapiro: The current governor and former attorney general of Pennsylvania is seen as sharp, competent, and a fixture of state politics. He is widely regarded as the most likely to receive the nod – especially as the Harris campaign plans to kick off its battleground tour in The Keystone State on August 6.

Pros – He is an effective communicator who knows the workings of Pennsylvania inside and out. His relationships and name recognition could swing the state for Kamala and, with it, the crucial 19 Electoral College votes that – if she were not to win them – would make the path to the requisite 270 much steeper to climb.

Pennsylvania is a knife-edge state; Trump won there in 2016 by just under one percent (44,000 votes), and Biden won it in 2020 by just over one percent (80,000 votes). Having the hometown advantage on the Harris ticket could prove decisive.

Cons – During the Democratic primary campaign – now consigned to the memory hole – Joe Biden was faced with a daunting protest vote of the “uncommitted” variety in Shapiro’s state. These were largely Arab and Muslim Americans who were angered by the president’s continued support for Israel. While Biden won with almost 88%, more than 60,000 unhappy locals made the effort to “write-in” for another candidate. A similar situation occurred in Michigan with over 100,000 people choosing “uncommitted.”

Shapiro is Jewish and has a history of expressing strong support for Israel – although not necessarily for PM Benjamin Netanyahu. A number of Democrat-aligned activist groups have balked at choosing him based on his views, with one group even debating whether it would be acceptable to refer to him as “Genocide Josh.”

“We have to query whether or not we would tolerate this if this were people dressed up in KKK outfits or KKK regalia,” Shapiro said of the pro-Palestinian protests that engulfed college campuses. As a young man, he wrote for a college paper, saying:

“Palestinians will not coexist peacefully… They do not have the capabilities to establish their own homeland and make it successful even with the aid of Israel and the United States. They are too battle-minded to be able to establish a peaceful homeland of their own.”

And while it is almost certainly true that his opinions have changed over the passing years, his former statements could make him a liability when it comes to securing the usually reliably Democratic Arab/Muslim vote.