According to the polls, the presidential race has tightened since Joe Biden dropped out and anointed Kamala Harris as the Democrats’ nominee. Donald Trump’s lead in the RealClearPolitics average has shrunk to just 0.8 points. However, one pollster that still shows Trump with a healthy lead nationally is Rasmussen Reports. Its latest poll, released Thursday, had Trump up five points nationally; however, Trump’s “margin has narrowed, especially when third-party candidates are factored into this year’s election.” 

Many on the left took to social media to dismiss the poll and label Rasmussen Reports as a "pro-Trump pollster."

To get a response to these accusations and to get some answers about the state of the race, I spoke with Mark Mitchell, the head pollster at Rasmussen Reports. We delved into the current political climate and polling dynamics surrounding Harris and Trump. 

Mitchell addressed this criticism by pointing me to the following chart that illustrates Rasmussen Reports’ track record:

Our Weekly 2020 Estimates

If you look at our very final estimate we were Biden +1 or 3.5 points off the final 4.5 point actual.

If you average our 5 final weeks (Biden +1, +3, +5, +12 & +8) you get 5.8 or 1.3 points off the 4.5 point actual.

Now, look at this race ... https://t.co/O8vhxy2J3o pic.twitter.com/nnQJ5cIxoI

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 1, 2024

"The average of our polling was spot on in 2016 and about 1.5 points too favorable to Biden in 2020," he explained. Mitchell attributed the claims of bias to "low information media types" who don't recognize Rasmussen's independence and transparency.

The question I believe is on everyone’s minds is whether Harris is experiencing a "honeymoon" period similar to a convention bounce. Mitchell confirmed, "Yes, we think we saw about a week-long bounce that is fading."

Chart Just Shared on WarRoom -

Harris v Trump - Day By Day - see dates

Harris - spring forward, fall back https://t.co/KuVoGpq89h pic.twitter.com/2FyzIl93TS

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 1, 2024

Mitchell credits the accuracy of Rasmussen's polling to its methodology. “Besides the fact that we are independent and transparent, there are methodology differences,” he explained. “Many pollsters have moved to smaller online-only models that may have response biases.”

He expressed confidence in Rasmussen's polling because it always polls likely voters, which he says means that the polls may “swing more but are more accurate.”  

When I asked him about the wide range of results in Trump/Biden polls, Mitchell reiterated the importance of their methodology, emphasizing their focus on likely voters over registered voters. He noted that many other pollsters are still sampling registered voters.

Looking ahead, Mitchell anticipates Trump maintaining a one-to-five point lead nationally, barring any unforeseen “black swan” events. "Maybe Kamala has an emperor with no clothes moment and it’s worse,” he suggested.

He nevertheless predicts a close election that will be decided in the late hours of Election Night.

“I predict we will all be watching swing states and chewing our nails at 1 a.m.,” he speculated, noting that despite Trump’s current lead in swing states, Republican candidates are struggling overall. 

“Right now, all Republican swing state candidates are losing in our polls,” he said. “It’s tough to predict what's going to happen there, but the generic congressional ballot currently points to another weak set of Republican pickups.”

Many have speculated that Harris at the top of the ticket could reverse some of the gains Trump has made with minorities. Mitchell was skeptical. 

“Lots of noise, but it looks like women and independents moved the most. In the last poll, Trump was still getting about 30% of the black vote,” he said.

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