The November election won’t be as easy.

On Tuesday, the Republican nomination in the Arizona primary senate race went to Kari Lake. With more than 95% of the votes counted, Lake was the clear winner, tallying more than 55% and setting her up to go against Democrat Ruben Gallego in November. It’s an important race in terms of which party will secure control of the upper chamber in the 119th Congress and could have an outsized impact on illegal immigration and border security.

Primary Focus

Both Lake and her fellow challenger, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, made illegal immigration the centerpieces of their respective campaigns – with good reason. From October 2023 to January 2024, border patrol agents processed 754,000 immigrants along the Arizona border, making it a prominent issue locally and nationally.

Ms. Lake is considered a Trump loyalist and has spent the last three years positioning herself as a voice for the MAGA movement, doing multiple interviews and making a pitch to voters that she hopes will continue to resonate come November. Her website makes a series of arguments, which, if elected, she will presumably try to push:

“Many of the U.S.’s largest, Democrat-run cities have violent crime rates similar to – in some cases higher than – those in the countries people are leaving to come here. This is the primary condition being cited by asylum seekers, removing it will automatically disqualify a majority of applicants.”

If elected, Lake said she wants to finish what Trump started and build the wall. She would also withhold foreign aid to countries that don’t assist in preventing illegal immigration but provide assistance to those who want to fight organized crime in their countries. Migrants caught illegally entering the US would require immediate deportation and be permanently banned.

Lake vs Gallego

On the Democrat side, US Rep. Ruben Gallego won his primary unopposed. A son of immigrants and an ex-marine, with political experience in Washington, DC, and good local name recognition, Gallego will likely prove a tricky opponent. He has also raised more campaign funding than Lake.

In 2022, Lake ran for governor against Democrat Katie Hobbs. After her defeat, she filed a series of lawsuits claiming the election was rigged against her, which made some Republican backers wary of the potential Fourth Estate attacks that such a position would inevitably bring – it is also ripe fodder for Gallego.

After declaring victory on Tuesday night, Lake explained to supporters that after she wins against Gallego, she would be a “backup” in Washington for Trump. Holding a thick binder, she said it was a tally of Gallego’s “destructive voting record that is destroying Arizona.” She has accused her Democrat opponent of wanting looser restrictions on immigration and of being a far-left radical.

Gallego, who is considered a progressive, disapproves of Lake’s stance on abortion and her claims of election fraud. Gallego said in a statement that he welcomed Arizonans “to join our team and help defeat Kari Lake and her dangerous plan to ban abortion and hurt Arizonans.”

With less than 100 days remaining until the November election, there is sure to be some political banter between the two. On Monday, Gallego agreed to a debate against Lake, but she had doubts about the debate hosts: the state Clean Elections Commission. However, she told reporters, “[O]ur teams can discuss a fair place, a fair platform to do that.”