How long will the independent remain in the race?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is in a new political reality following the events of the past several weeks. With the GOP now unified behind Trump and the Democratic Party rallying around Kamala Harris, the viability of Kennedy’s independent presidential run is in question. At first it appeared that underwhelming polls hadn’t deterred RFK Jr., who delivered a defiant speech after Biden dropped out of the re-election race on July 21. In his remarks, Kennedy slammed both the Democrats and Trump. But recent signs point to a potential exit strategy that will see him remain as an influential political voice.

Chaotic Days for RFK Jr.

RFK Jr. recently cancelled several campaign stops and instead appears to be angling for a position in a potential future Trump administration. Last Tuesday, video footage of a call with Trump made headlines after the independent’s son leaked it online.

Kennedy said he was “mortified” that the video was posted, in which Trump discusses RFK Jr. dropping out and endorsing him. The former POTUS also concurs with the former Democrat that vaccines should have more scrutiny regarding their potential dangers. Trump said that “maybe” there could be a “great place” for Kennedy in the upcoming administration, and RFK Jr. agreed when Trump said he would win.

As journalist and editor-at-large of IM1776 Ben Braddock noted:

“There was a widespread expectation in the Kennedy camp that Trump was going to make the deal, which was why he stayed in Milwaukee for several days. As of last Thursday morning, the buzz was that there would be an appearance on the final night. Maybe the Trump campaign decided it was better for Kennedy to stay in to bleed votes from Biden.”

However, with no deal announced with Trump, and no endorsement yet issued from RFK Jr., questions remain about what his next step will be.

Kennedy Versus the Democrats?

In terms of the latest poll aggregate, RFK Jr. is currently sitting around 6% support for his third-party run for POTUS. Trump currently leads Harris by 6%, 43 to 37. Kennedy’s precise effect on this race remains to be seen, but the reality is that the GOP has been friendlier to him than his own former party.

The fact that Trump requested an endorsement from RFK Jr. shows that he believes the philanthropist and naturist would be a boon to the MAGA movement, and it points to the new reality in which a man from a storied Democratic dynasty like the Kennedys now feels more comfortable talking with a Republican than with the party he grew up in.

Democratic operative Doug Gordon says RFK Jr. is nothing but “a stalking horse to help Trump win” and claims it is “is not a coincidence that the same big money donors funding the Trump campaign are also funding the Kennedy campaign.”

The mainstream and left-leaning media and Democratic Party establishment figures have portrayed Kennedy as a “conspiracy theorist” spreading misinformation about vaccines, which has also served to separate him further from the left. As RFK Jr. diverges further from his family’s Democratic roots and takes flak from the party apparatus, the prospect of him latching on to a Trump victory becomes more probable.

What’s Next?

At this point the future of Kennedy’s run for POTUS is an open question. RFK Jr. cancelled several campaign events in recent days and has left fundraising efforts to his VP-pick, Nicole Shanahan. He could still be a spoiler in this race, but the chances of him remaining much longer are diminishing, particularly as he continues to struggle to meet ballot access rules for qualifying as a candidate.

Going forward, the prospect of RFK Jr. potentially serving in a future Trump administration very much remains a possibility. All indications are that Kennedy would accept a reasonable offer to continue being a national figure, even if it meant serving under a conservative administration. As pro-Kennedy PAC American Values manager Tony Lysons recently said:

“I know that in his heart what he wants to do is fight for the American people. If he can serve in some other way, I’m confident he would do it.”