The Demographic Winter of Our Discontent

So it’s official. The last Italian will be born in 2225, says the Italian publication Il Messaggero. And will die 82 years later, undoubtedly childless.

The problem is, of course, the dearth of children. Birth rates in Italy have dropped well below replacement rates and entered the realm of extinction.

Viewed across 2,400 years of Western civilization, 200 years is not so very far away. Imminent, in fact. But we will not have to wait that long to feel the effects of all those children gone missing. As soon as 2116, the Italian population will be 10 million, down from 60 million today. And a lot older.

Caught between lower birthrates and greater lifespans, Italians will grow older for longer. As these trends play out, seniors will comprise a higher and higher percentage of the population right up until the final die-off.

What does an Italian gerontocracy look like?

In the absence of grandchildren to dote on, I imagine oldsters engaged in cards, bocci, wine tasting, gourmet food, music, and spectator sports. Maybe some light travel to break things up. The good life, Italian style. Probably not so many discos, start-ups, and families. Endless farewell tours by the Rolling Stones. Not a lot of change as the civilization winds down like an old watch until the hands simply stop at some predetermined time.

Italy is not alone. The demographic winter has already descended over Japan, China, Russia, and Germany. The problem in these countries is always the same. In an agricultural age, parents needed children for the same reason they needed animals: extra arms and legs to handle the grueling, un-automated chores around the farm. In the absence of pensions, children provided a comfort in the golden years. A big family was a prosperous family. In our urban era, children morphed into luxury goods, little mini-mes, who cost a lot more than they contribute to the family fortunes. Kids are not without their charms, but they restrict lifestyle choices, cut into free time, postpone retirement, and shorten vacations — you get the picture.

It is easy to understand the math behind a growing population: one child begot four, who each begot four more so that you go from one to 22 people within a single lifespan. Repeat for a several generations and you create a country. Geometric decreases are less intuitive, but compound in the same way: for every child that is not born, 21 others never show up. Repeat this for a several generations and a country disappears.

While the problem is common across the industrialized world, each nation has reacted differently to its own demise.

Japan moved manufacturing operations (which require a youthful workforce) to countries with growing markets (driven by youthful consumers). The more sedate functions like research and design stayed at home with the elderly Japanese knowledge workers, (Peter Zeihan, The Absent Superpower). This should work — for a while.

The one-child policy in China delivered less children and even fewer girls due to the disproportionate termination of female babies. The missing girls dramatically reduced the fertility of the nation. Meanwhile, China embarked on an ambitious industrial policy and a military buildup. These initiatives require lots of young people to man the supply chains and serve in the military — young people who are in short supply. Maybe the CCP will start growing little Han Chinese in test tubes who will look to the state for parenting. Absent some technological breakthrough, it looks like the aggressive new policies will be undone by the unwelcome success of the old policies.

Russia is going out with a bang. Here in the worker’s paradise, 25 percent of males die before age 55 due to alcoholism and smoking. Higher rates of TB, HIV, and suicide don’t help. Caught between low birth rates and high death rates, Russia is shrinking quickly. The leadership tried to solve this problem by waging war against its neighbors — a war that further depleted its own population through attrition and emigration. Kidnapping Ukrainian children will not make up these losses. In its twilight, Russia is determined to take one last shot at world domination. Even though it lacks the money and people to succeed, Russia does have the nuclear capabilities to take us all down in a Jimmy Cagney-I’m-the-top-of-the-world ball of fire. This is quite dangerous.

The losses of two world wars and a muted baby boom left Germany without any sustainable path to remain, well, German. Unless you can envision Germany without Teutons. Until very recently, the voters were unconcerned and obsessed more about the long-term effects of climate change than their own upcoming extinction, giving every appearance of sacrificing themselves to appease the weather gods. This is just weird.

The United States suffered less from declining birth rates than other countries and continues to grow from higher levels of immigration. That’s not to say America will be unaffected. Like everything in our divided nation, declining births have a political dimension. Religious people have larger families than secular ones. I look forward to more Mormons, Orthodox Jews, Evangelicals, Amish, and conservative Catholics — and not so many atheist wokies. (Fun fact: San Francisco has more dogs than children.)

Depopulation is not limited to the developed world. Indian birthrates are now below replacement levels.

This is where the crystal ball starts to cloud over. Some futurists predict a breakdown in civilization, where the animal kingdom reasserts its dominance over an empty planet. The Gates Foundation spent billions to defuse a nonexistent population bomb. Will Gates continue to suppress the birth of children, or just declare victory and go home? David Brooks thinks we should replace the nuclear family with personal interests — extended groups who bond over sexual identity and shared professional interests rather than direct bloodlines.

The Catholic Church is having none of this. Long an advocate for life and family, the Church stands for procreation. Translation: more families, more children, more orphanages — more self-sacrifice to achieve these good things. And less divorce, less contraception, less abortion — less selfishness to avoid these bad things. This message falls harshly on our modern ears, tuned as they are to the wavelength of ever-increasing personal freedom and deaf to pleas for more personal responsibility.

One thing is clear: if the Church had its way, there would be no population crisis — a reality that is as unwelcome to our present age as it is undeniable. Perhaps the meek will inherit the earth after all.