In the first six months of 2024, there has been a staggering 94 percent decrease in fentanyl seizures, dropping from 5,135 pounds last year to 286 pounds.

This alarming drop is a deliberate decision that puts thousands of American lives at risk and threatens U.S.-Mexico relations.

The Shift in Mexican Drug Enforcement

While fentanyl seizures have plummeted, Mexico’s Army and National Guard have significantly increased their efforts against methamphetamines. In 2023, Mexico seized over 400 tons of meth, more than 12 times the amount captured in 2022. And this pace continued into 2024, with 168 tons seized already. 

Since fentanyl is less common in Mexico than meth, it is not being given the same priority. These figures prove that Mexico could successfully capture both illicit substances but is choosing not to. 

Impact on American Lives

Fentanyl is a powerful synthetic opioid that is 20 to 40 times more potent than heroin and 100 times more potent than morphine. This makes the risk of overdose extremely high.

While fentanyl is often found laced in illicit substances, it can also be found in counterfeit pills that look like legitimate prescription medications. Americans might think they are consuming a regulated pharmaceutical product when, in reality, they are unknowingly ingesting a deadly substance.

According to National Institute on Drug Abuse Director Nora D. Volkow, M.D., “Illicit pills are made to look identical to real prescription pills, but can actually contain fentanyl.”

In 2023, the synthetic opioid killed more than 80,000 Americans, devastating families throughout the country. Last year, enough fentanyl crossed the U.S. border to kill the entire U.S. population. 

Fentanyl and its victims serve as an unfortunate reminder to all Americans that every state is a border state.

A Watershed Moment in U.S.-Mexican Relations

Before Mexico’s President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum takes office in 2025, American leadership must make it clear that fentanyl this trend is unacceptable.

If the shift in Mexico’s drug enforcement remains, it will intensify calls among U.S. leaders for direct action against the drug cartels. 

Even before the drop in fentanyl seizures, many prominent Republican leaders supported direct military action to eliminate the cartel’s fentanyl flow.

These cartel hawks view Mexico as a failed narco-state. They are therefore willing to proceed with or without Mexico’s permission.

Former President Donald Trump argued the U.S. could destroy the cartels with drone strikes “just as [the US] took down ISIS.” Rep. Michael McCaul, the Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee introduced The Project Precursor Act to label fentanyl as a chemical weapon.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw introduced a bill to authorize the use of military force against Mexican cartels, mirroring the 2002 AUMF which authorized the invasion of Iraq. Former presidential candidates Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis also support sending U.S. troops into Mexico to end fentanyl trafficking.  

Urgent Call for Bilateral Cooperation

Mexico’s shift in drug enforcement represents a crucial moment in U.S.-Mexican relations.  

If this trend continues and Republicans gain significant seats in the upcoming election, fentanyl could become a major flashpoint.

As both nations stand before potential leadership transitions, the commitment to combating fentanyl must be reaffirmed and elevated to a top priority for both countries. 

The fate of countless lives and the strength of U.S.-Mexican relations hinges on the resolve of our leaders. Failure to act decisively and collaboratively against fentanyl could usher in an era of otherwise avoidable tragedy and loss.