After a lot of media hype (that I dismissed as wishcasting) yesterday that Biden was preparing to step down, the Biden campaign is doubling down and announcing that he is not withdrawing. And if he sticks to his guns, Dems may not be able to do much about it. The party depends on the whims of an angry and somewhat confused elderly man. And that’s bad enough, but the real battle may just be getting started.

The coup has lined up nearly every powerful and influential Dem behind replacing Biden. Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and major governors and senators (not to mention the media) are seemingly on the same page.

The question is what will replace Biden? The easiest legal pathway is simply elevating Kamala, but the coup is divided evenly between bringing in Kamala or some sort of limited ‘blitz’ primary.

Pelosi, like a lot of establishment Dems, is favoring a new limited primary that could bypass Kamala.

In a meeting with fellow California Democrats last week, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi stressed the need for an open process to choose the party’s next nominee if President Joe Biden steps aside, in an effort to avoid the appearance of a Kamala Harris coronation.

Pelosi was one of several California Democrats who stressed that an uncompetitive process would turn off voters, according to those four people.

AOC, one of the few prominent Dems still backing Biden, is warning of just that.

“If you think that there is consensus among the people who want Joe Biden to leave that they will support Vice President Harris, you would be mistaken,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “They’re not going to be fully honest, but I’m going to be honest for them.”

“I’m in these rooms. I see what they say in conversations,” she continued. “I’m here to tell you that a huge amount of the donor class and a huge amount of these elites and a huge amount of these folks in these rooms that I see that are pushing for President Biden to not be the nominee also are not interested in seeing Vice President being the nominee.”

The divisions are also helping keep Biden as the nominee. Most Dems want him gone, but there’s little enthusiasm for Kamala. The view is that if you’re going to take the unprecedented step of jettisoning your own nominee, why not get the best possible candidate for the ticket? The opposing argument being made by AOC is that any changes will make it easier for Republicans to block the candidate with election challenges. And that such a process will steal the role away from Kamala.

This also may be why Kamala has been playing it pretty cool. Not only could Biden allies agree to a process that would jettison her (and some of them really dislike her anyway) but she knows that once this particular door is opened, she might end being jettisoned along with Joe. Her safest play is to prop him up, remain on the ticket, and wait for him to resign for medical reasons.

Notably top Dems, not only Pelosi, but Rep. Jim Clyburn, and some Obama allies, have been pushing a limited primary. And without a consensus and with the party’s convention coming up, the Dems are in trouble.

Plan A for the Dems to come to the convention as a united party while attracting disaffected Republicans and Independents is now dead. And there isn’t even a Plan B.

Democrats have to get Biden to step down and agree on a new nominee in time for their convention while also preparing to deal with many legal issues that will emerge from this move. A party whose legal talent would once have been focused on fighting Republicans and rigging states is now going to be focused on playing defense against Republican election challenges.

And if anyone remembers 2020, they should be able to understand how that, apart from the personalities of Trump and Biden, could determine the outcome of the presidential election. (And that shows how broken our political and election system is.)