We tend to think of United States presidential elections as a strictly American affair, as they are supposed to be. But the whole world is watching every four years, with global leaders from both our allies and our adversaries gaming out what their relationships and fortunes might look like depending on the winner. This year is no exception, and one of those leaders keeping a close eye on the race is Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He allowed his mask of neutrality to slip a bit during a recent interview with the BBC when he told them that he was "preparing for the hard work" of a potential Trump presidency. Trump got wind of that and a call between the two was set up. Rather than being confrontational, Trump reported that Zelensky was cordial and even congratulated him on his nomination and convention. But both Trump and JD Vance have given Zelensky reasons to be concerned. (Newsweek)

Donald Trump has spoken with Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone conversation, following the Ukrainian president's pledge to work with anyone who was in power in the U.S. The conversation came after comments by Zelensky to the BBC that he was ready for the "hard work" of a possible Trump presidency.

The GOP candidate's announcement of Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate in November's presidential election has raised concerns the U.S. commitment to Kyiv regarding the fight against Moscow might wane should they take the White House.

Vance has previously said he "doesn't care what happens to Ukraine," while Trump has decried the level of Washington's military support for Kyiv.

To be fair, Zelensky is facing a sort of "Devil and the deep blue sea" situation here. Biden is a known figure to him. He continually claims that he wants to help Ukraine "defeat Russia." He pushes Congress for more and more aid, something Zelensky no doubt appreciates. But at the same time, he places handcuffs on Ukraine in terms of where and how the weapons we give them can be used. Joe Biden expects Ukraine to somehow "defeat Russia" without actually attacking Russia unless it's on the front lines. More than anything else, Joe Biden appears to support keeping this war going in perpetuity.

Donald Trump is probably somewhat more of a mystery in Zelensky's eyes. He has made his position on the Russia-Ukraine war clear without providing any details. He claims that if he retakes office, he will be able to bring the war to an end almost immediately and restore peace. It's an admirable goal if he can pull it off, but Volodymyr Zelensky probably won't like the results. Russia and Ukraine are not even remotely close to a peace deal. Putin is already insisting that he be allowed to keep the territory that he annexed in the east. Zelensky, echoing Biden, continues to claim that he will fight to get "every last inch" of his territory back. But will he stand by that demand if he no longer has Joe Biden backing him up?

If Donald Trump returns to the White House, he's going to be under a lot of pressure to produce foreign policy results because he has made some very big claims. The situation in Gaza will be relatively easy for Trump. Just open the floodgates and give Israel everything they order from us, stand up for them at the United Nations without wavering, and wait for Hamas to collapse. The picture in Ukraine is far more cloudy. Vladimir Putin knows he is playing with a very strong hand. He has little motivation to make significant concessions. Short of open warfare, there isn't much Trump could threaten him with, even in private. Russia is already under nearly the maximum American sanctions possible, not that they're doing much. 

But if Trump can convince Zelensky to give up the eastern provinces and officially recognize Russia's claims, Putin might just call that a win and go home. Zelensky would also likely have to publicly abandon his bid to join NATO. Also, Trump has a lot more that he will be able to use to apply pressure on Zelensky. After all, the President has to approve any additional aid going to Kyiv. Could that all happen "on day one" as Trump has claimed? I have my doubts. He's going to be pretty busy. But he's surprised me before. What he winds up doing about China and Taiwan is another matter entirely.