Big Sky Country has become a top prize in the upcoming election. Here’s why.

More than 2,000 miles west of Washington, DC, the Republican Party has its sights set on a crucial Senate seat that’s in play in the state of Montana. With House control up for grabs in the 2024 election and the presidency set to go either way, the fate of the US Senate race is increasingly in focus, and control of the powerful body may well come down to whether Montana’s GOP candidate Tim Sheehy can defeat incumbent Democrat Jon Tester.

Montana currently has a split delegation, with Republican Sen. Steve Daines in a safe seat and Tester in the second Senate seat, which now has a solid chance of being wrested away from him.

Two Key Demographics to Capture the State

Two groups that will play an outsized role in Montana’s election results are middle-aged and elderly residents and Native American tribes. Elderly voters make up the lion’s share of Montana’s registered electorate and will play a key part in determining whether Tester or Sheehy get the nod.

As Stacia Dahl, managing editor of the AARP Montana State Blog, reported:

“The turnout of voters over age 50 has significantly outpaced that of younger Montanans. In the 2022 midterm election, for example, 65% of the electorate was 50-plus, compared with 35% among 18- to 49-year-olds.”

The Democrats have rolled out the biggest efforts in state history to boost the Native vote in Montana, spending more than $1 million starting in May of this year, more than twice what they spent to boost the Native vote in Montana in the 2018 campaign. Comprising 6.5% of the state’s population, Native Montanans also comprise a majority of the population in several counties, which could be key to a Tester victory. The GOP has not disclosed its approach to winning the Native vote.

Montana has one of the highest voter turnouts in the nation in most elections. As Corin Cates-Carney, news director, noted for Montana Public Radio:

“The number of registered voters is now more than 758,000. Nearly half of those registered come from the state’s four most populous counties: Yellowstone, Gallatin, Missoula and Flathead.”

Considering Montana has a population of only 1.08 million, that’s a very high proportion of registered voters. Trump took Montana by 56.9% to Biden’s 40.5% in 2020, with more than 600,000 votes cast. “Every vote counts” has never been a more true statement than it is in Montana this election cycle.

Why Montana Matters So Much in the 2024 Election

Despite talk of President Joe Biden’s recent terrible debate performance and mounting questions about his fitness to lead, the Democrats still have a path to congressional control in 2024. Montana is crucial because taking Tester’s seat could be a clear path to Republicans seizing a working majority in the Senate.

The Senate is a crucial and powerful political body, and if the Democrats manage to take the majority in the House and possibly the presidency, they would have an environment clear of any real obstacles to pushing through their agendas on abortion, immigration, gender ideology, taxation, packing the Supreme Court, getting rid of the filibuster, and more.

With GOP nominee President Donald Trump’s survival and response to an assassination attempt on July 13, the chance of a Republican resurgence is very strong. While it seems that Trump is on a path to victory, the Democrats are still flush with cash and a political strategy to capture sufficient electoral votes to counteract Trump’s surging popularity.

And when it comes to Montana, this could still go either way as well.

Can the GOP Pull This Off?

Tester is seeking his fourth term this fall, and there’s no doubt he has carved out a strong base of support in deep-red Montana. But his luck may be running out. According to the latest predictions from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, Sheehy has a 76% chance of winning the Senate seat, compared to Tester’s 24%.

This prediction comes despite Tester spending a massive $23.9 million to Sheehy’s $8.3 million as of May.

If the Democrats can’t buy Tester a victory this November, their chance of keeping a Senate majority becomes extremely slim, especially if Trump wins because then, Vice President JD Vance will also become president of the Senate and cast tie-breaking votes. Sheehy is a former Navy SEAL who is solidly backed by Trump and a wide array of Montana conservative and independent figures.