Moments before officially becoming the Republican Party nominee for president, Donald Trump on July 15 named Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate. This crucial decision was met with cheers by the convention attendees but with a far more divided reception from conservative pundits and supporters in the wider world. And yet, despite the less-than-overwhelming welcome, it seems Trump is sending a strident message to his base, his fellow Republicans, and his opponents.

Trump in the Moment

The former president announced his vice-presidential pick via social media platform Truth Social, creating an anticipatory buzz at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI. He wrote:

“After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio.”

He continued by providing a snapshot resumé of the junior senator, noting that he “served our Country in the Marine Corps, graduated from Ohio State University in two years, Summa Cum Laude, and is a Yale Law School Graduate, where he was Editor of The Yale Law Journal, and President of the Yale Law Veterans Association. J.D.’s book, ‘Hillbilly Elegy,’ became a Major Best Seller and Movie, as it championed the hardworking men and women of our Country.”

As a natural showman, one would expect 45 to be in a jubilant mood as he received the party’s nomination and unveiled his VP pick. And yet, this was not the usual bombastic Trump who greeted the attendees. More subdued – and perhaps even emotional – as the crowd showered him with applause, Mr. Trump appeared a more somber figure, perhaps suggesting that the recent assassination attempt weighed heavy.

This was a moment that could well define the political future of the United States, a point proven by the immediate firing-up of the spin machine with Sen. Vance’s anointment.

Vance Is the Message

In Apprentice-style anticipation, the nation discussed potential VP contenders over water coolers, kitchen tables, and bar stools. Cases were made, argued and dismissed, and in true PT Barnum form, the grand reveal was held until the last moment.

While the other candidates – Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and even Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin – would have each brought something unique to the table, it seems likely that Trump had a few very specific goals in mind.

All Roads Lead to Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is absolutely crucial to both presidential candidates’ paths to the White House. If Trump can take those19 Electoral College votes, President Biden’s re-election becomes all but impossible. Vance’s bona fides as a dirt-poor child of the Rust Belt who made it to within a heartbeat of the Oval Office is a success story that will presumably resonate with and inspire working-class voters.

Although from neighboring Ohio, the two states share a lot of common culture. As Howard Kurtz wrote on Fox News Digital on July 16, “while he is from Ohio, he speaks Midwestern.”

The VP Challenge: While Trump hopes for a repeat performance of the debate debacle of June 27, the question of whether there will even be a second bite of that particular apple remains in doubt. Not so for the Vice Presidential debates.

Both President Biden and former President Trump are on the upper end of the age scale. There is a reasonable chance that whichever man takes the 2024 election, his VP could end up stepping into the top spot. It seems certain that this year’s VP debates will be top-tier television with audience numbers far and above the usual draw. Trump will be expecting Vance to use his intelligence and working-class credentials to paint VP Kamala Harris as a west-coast elite looking to bring California values to the Midwest.

A Make America Great Again Election: Trump’s message to his supporters, to his fellow Republicans who may not be on the “Trump Train,” and to his political opponents is that this election is about the reshaping of the GOP. Vance – despite his past comments – is a MAGA candidate, and by sheer virtue of being picked for the ticket, is now a frontrunner for 2028. It seems the former president is letting his followers know that their movement has a future beyond his own presidential career.

Critics Pounce

The negative response to Vance as Trump’s running mate was swift and calculated – but will it be effective? The pages of the nation’s leading newspapers are filled with comments made by Vance back in 2016, in which he denigrated then-candidate Trump and made comparisons that would seem right at home in the pages of the left-leaning Fourth Estate. Not so prominent are his retractions of those statements as he drifted closer to the MAGA agenda in his political outlook. But the internet is forever, and those comments will haunt him all the way to November.

But why would Trump pick someone who had been so openly hostile towards him in the past? Political newshounds will have noticed that Trump is – somewhat surprisingly – not a man to hold a grudge once an accord has been reached. Notably, he also seems to expect others to be forgiving of his own barbs. Just consider the rancorous 2016 campaign trail that left a scattering of political careers and devastating insults both personal and professional in its wake. Many of that same field of candidates are now on fine terms with Trump, including Marco Rubio, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Ben Carson.

For the left-leaning media and Biden surrogates, it seems that repeating Vance’s prior words ad nauseum is the prime strategy for deflating the Trump-Vance ticket. And it would be foolhardy to suppose that such tactics will fall on deaf ears for wavering Republican voters.

Polling puts Donald Trump ahead of Joe Biden by almost three percent nationally, and by more than four percent in the all-important swing states. Choosing JD Vance to be his running mate will likely not hurt his prospects, but it may prove a decision that effectively nullifies Kamala Harris and shores up a key piece of the electoral puzzle.