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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his visit to Russia on Monday. Modi’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin shows the delicate balance that India hopes to strike between Russia, the United States, and China.
During the Cold War, India led the Non-Aligned Movement, promising a way between the capitalist West and communist East. While India built relations with the U.S., it relied on Soviet technological and industrial support. In particular, Soviet arms were the main supplier for the Indian military.
It has been decades since the fall of the Soviet Union, but India is again attempting to find a middle path between the global powers. After India clashed with China on their border in 2020, tensions have been high. However, both Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping promised to de-escalate tensions last year at the border. Still, India fears a unipolar Asia dominated by China and is looking to work with powers that can balance Beijing’s influence.
Today’s talks with Russia mirror India’s close relations with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Modi has refused to condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and continues to rely on Russia’s military hardware and cheap oil. However, this importation of goods has led to a trade imbalance that Modi hopes to rectify at his meeting with Putin in Moscow. More broadly, Modi needs to keep Moscow from drifting too far into Beijing’s camp in case of any future conflict between India and China.
Despite New Delhi’s closeness with Moscow, the Biden administration has sought to continue to strengthen the U.S.’s relationship with India. India desires American technology and investment in both the military and commercial spheres. It is true the U.S. has some reservations about the provision of military technology to a country that has close relations with Moscow. Moreover, Modi’s brand of Hindu nationalism does ruffle feathers in Washington. But the U.S. needs a counterbalance to China and a site for American offshore investment.
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In the future, it is likely that Modi will continue to navigate a path that balances the three global powers against one another. India may be able to play its cards right and become a properly global power during this century. However, it has historically lagged behind peer countries in development and some of Modi’s domestic policies threaten the liberalization required to compete economically.
When it comes to the U.S.’s approach to India, it should not hope to bring India into the American fold as an ally akin to Japan or South Korea. American diplomats and presidents should be open-eyed about the game India is playing on the international stage. The U.S. does not need to upset this balancing act that Modi is performing. Instead, if we play our role in Modi’s game effectively, we can prevent India from drifting toward an anti-American foreign policy and remain a reasonable international actor.
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