ER: So Le Pen’s party obtained around 34% of the vote yesterday, with the newly formed Front Populaire (all the left) at 29% and Macron’s party at 22%. The RINO-type centre right dropped down to 10%. Voter turnout was high and estimated at just below 70% in the MSM at 6pm. The number of seats Le Pen was predicted to win last night was put in the MSM at 250-300 out of a 577 seat chamber. Which is high, but not yet a reliable estimate. Alexander Mercouris at the weekend noted how the French system seems to reward the election winner with a higher than expected number of seats.

RN & Allies = Le Pen’s party; NFP = the new Left; Ensemble-RE = Macron’s party; LR = the old centre right.

France, Ifop-Fiducial exit poll:

Snap national parliament election

RN and allies-ID: 34.2%
NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 29.1%
Ensemble-RE: 21.5%
LR/Divers droite-EPP: 10%
Far-left candidates-*: 1.3%

➤ https://t.co/oL97q6mlTg #législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024 pic.twitter.com/VmF87HLBGH

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) June 30, 2024

Zerohedge gives us a good idea of the horse trading that has to happen before next Sunday’s run-off. See —

The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government to “cohabit” with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday’s run-off.

The RN’s chances of winning power next week will depend on the political dealmaking made by its rivals over the coming days. In the past, centre-right and centre-left parties have teamed up to keep the RN from power, but that dynamic, known as the “republican front,” is less certain than ever.

If no candidate reaches 50% in the first round, the top two contenders automatically qualify for the second round, as well as all those with 12.5% of registered voters. In the run-off, whoever wins the most votes take the constituency.

According to Reuters, the high turnout on Sunday suggests France is heading for a record number of three-way run-offs. These generally benefit the RN much more than two-way contests, experts say.

Worth reading in full. Their final line —

In short, the people have had enough and they finally want to be heard.

***

In this overnight Politico.eu piece, we get this (MSM warning): 

If the second-round vote on July 7 delivers a parliamentary majority for the National Rally — and forecasts suggest it’s possible — France will be in uncharted waters. France will be governed, at least in part, by politicians who made their names sympathizing with Vladimir Putin while vowing to rip up the European Union, wage war on migration and quit NATO. (ER: Le Pen will not support Ukraine in the war.)

Although Le Pen’s party has softened some of its sharper-edged positions, it remains deeply skeptical of Western mainstream political positions. A victory in this election would provide a powerful boost to her chances of winning the French presidency in 2027.

********

Published to The Liberty Beacon from EuropeReloaded.com

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