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Nate Silver, the left’s favorite pollster, has released his very first 2024 presidential forecast and it is causing Democrats to lose their minds because it is very bad news for Joe Biden and his party.
Silver is now saying that Donald Trump has a 66 percent chance of winning the 2024 election.
Nate Silver's first forecast of this election season gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning at the moment.https://t.co/kMOSPZSDRO pic.twitter.com/Zf2674lqx8
— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) June 26, 2024
Silver’s model gave Biden an 89 percent chance of beating Trump in 2020. But, like most others, he gave Hillary a far better chance to beat Trump in 2016 than ended up being true. But, in 2016 almost no one said that Trump could or would win.
Silver tried to get ahead of the attacks he knew he would face with this latest forecast:
Wouldn’t it be suspicious if, in the first presidential cycle where the Democrat has consistently trailed in polls since 2004, I suddenly started telling you that you should trust vibes rather than polls? Or if I chucked out my heretofore well-performing model for a new one that had Biden favored — or at least had the election as a toss-up?
Yes, of course. It would be a sign that I’d become a hack. I’ve spent years telling people that, although polls are often wrong — indeed, inevitably wrong to some degree — it’s hard to predict the direction of polling error. Biden could easily overachieve his current polls — but it’s roughly as likely that he’ll underachieve them instead. It’s sort of a myth that Democrats outperformed their polls in 2022, but they certainly performed better than the conventional wisdom held. But Trump substantially outperformed his polls in 2016 and 2020. Going by the polls, perhaps along with some reasonable priors about things like the economy, is a lot better than going by the number of yard signs in your neighborhood or by what your friends think — or especially by what you hope will happen.
We are a bit more than four months away from seeing how close Silver and his crew got it.
Follow Warner Todd Huston on Facebook at: facebook.com/Warner.Todd.Huston, or Truth Social @WarnerToddHuston
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