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Athens, Georgia — Eight years ago, Donald Trump won Georgia’s presidential electoral votes. Four years later, Joe Biden won Georgia over Trump. In between, two U.S. Senate seats held by Republicans are now held by Democrats, but Republican Brian Kemp beat Democrat Stacey Abrams for governor not once, but twice.
How volatile was it here? When the Georgia legislature passed a sweeping overhaul of state election procedures, Biden repeatedly called it “Jim Crow 2.0” and MLB pulled the All-Star Game out of the state.
Like Pennsylvania, Georgia now is the ultimate of swing states and was the perfect background for Thursday’s debate between Biden and Trump, marking the first time in modern history one former president and one incumbent president debated each other on national television.
Going into tonight’s debate, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution-University of Georgia poll, Trump held a lead in a poll of likely Georgia voters over Biden 43% to 38%, with 9% saying they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has not yet qualified to appear on the Georgia ballot but experts say is expected to.
Keystone College political science professor Jeff Brauer said the importance of debates are most often overblown, with most of those who pay attention having already made up their minds and are simply rooting for their candidate.
“However, this debate is truly unprecedented as it is occurring months earlier than ever before and is between essentially incumbents, which hasn’t happened in the modern era,” he said.
Brauer said there was more at stake for Biden going into the night as he needed to convince the coalition that elected him in 2020 to get back onboard, a coalition that has been slowly slipping away. “Whereas Trump’s supporters seem to be with him, even through felony convictions, no matter what he says or how he acts,” he said.
At stake Thursday night was which man can build a coalition that goes beyond their base based on their performance. In short, which one can win over the voters who are known as the double haters, who have voted for both in different elections and been dissatisfied with both for wildly different reasons.
Leland Sproul is one of those voters. He is the customer-training manager for a Fortune 500 company who lives in suburban Atlanta, voted for Trump in 2016, then Biden in 2020, and was so frustrated by both of them that he sat out voting for any of the US Senate candidates, Republican or Democrat, in 2020.
He did, however, vote for Kemp.
Initially Sproul said he wasn’t going to watch the debate because of the frustration both parties have given him, but decided at the last minute to “torture” himself and watch it.
Athens native Joe Cobb, who also works as a training manager for a Fortune 500 company said that he voted for Trump the first time with a smile, but “the second time, I was ashamed.”
He went into the debate expecting the worst from Trump, “but the more and more Biden talked during the debate, it is Biden who is giving us the worst.”
Cobb said he was stunned when Biden brought up Afghanistan at the beginning of the debate, equally stunned at Trump’s demeanor, “for the most part” and impressed at his subtle jab at Biden’s incoherence when Trump said he didn’t understand what Biden was saying.
Cobb summed it up after the debate by saying Biden is a decent guy, but his performance Thursday night has left him without a choice. “After this debate, I cannot vote for him,” he said flatly.
As for Trump, Cobb said whomever Trump picks for his vice president will help him decide if he can vote for him, or if he sits out the election.
Jim Southard, a suburban Atlanta entrepreneur voted for Trump twice and liked his policies but went into this election cycle very unhappy with this choices, said, “I am still a conservative … and I feel confident in my ability to make a living regardless of who is in office.”
He too was stunned by Biden’s incoherent rambles in the first few minutes of the debate and it never let up.
“I was really expecting Biden to do a better job, similar to his State of the Union address…He comes off very old and feeble,” he said. Southard said the questions in the debate were fair and it was painful for him to watch Biden in the debate, and that “Biden failed miserably.”
Southard said Trump needs to reach to the middle and he said he cannot believe he is saying this but, “I will be voting for Trump, but if this is the best leadership both parties can offer, it is sad for America.”
As far as he can tell Sproul still isn’t voting for anyone.
Brauer said Biden usually rises to the occasion, “But tonight he seems nervous. His voice is very hoarse He is talking fast and rushing. He is giving strange looks when Trump is talking.”
“On the other hand, Trump is remarkably disciplined in behavior and message. He is calm, listening, not interrupting, and giving confident responses,” Brauer noted. “The performances are the opposite of the past debates and of the expectations of many of pundits.”
Brauer said outside of those unexpected performances, what was most interesting to him was to watch a debate between two actual presidents with actual records in office.
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“Too much has been focused on the past records and not on possibilities, plans for the future. Elections are about the future. Voters want to know how their lives will become better under a president,” Brauer said.
“Biden is the current incumbent. He needed to sell his accomplishments and give a plan for a second term. Instead he spent too much time trying to fact-check Trump, address Trump’s accusations, and calling Trump names,” Brauer said.
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