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President-elect Donald Trump’s victory on Election Day and massive gains among Hispanic and other minority voters have overturned the narrative that “demographics are destiny.” Exit polls reveal Trump received an all-time Republican record of 46% of the Hispanic vote in this week’s election, and Trump outright won the vote of Hispanic men. Trump also made notable inroads with black and Asian voters while leaving his non-Hispanic white support unchanged. But the biggest story of the Trump elections should be that America is finally depolarizing by race.
Trump’s appeal among Hispanics is widespread, cutting across education, location, and country of origin. In Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, where voters are largely multigenerational Mexican Americans with no college education, Trump made significant gains. In Hidalgo County in Texas, where McAllen sits, Trump turned a 40-percentage-point loss to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 into a 3-point win this week. Trump also attracted support from well-educated South and Central American immigrants in places such as Miami-Dade County, where he transformed a 30-point loss to Clinton into a 13-point victory over Harris eight years later.
Nowhere is Trump’s appeal to upper-class Hispanics best exemplified than the city of Doral, Florida, in Miami-Dade County, home of the largest Venezuelan community in the country. This is a community that welcomed upper middle-class Venezuelans, Colombians, and Brazilians fleeing left-wing governments, so more than 60% of residents over 25 have a college degree, even though 94% of them don’t speak English at home. Clinton beat Trump in Doral in 2016 by 40 points, Trump beat President Joe Biden there in 2020 by just 1 point, and Trump beat Harris in Doral by 23 points. This 63-point shift toward the Republican candidate is one of the largest in the nation, and it happened in a city where 8 in 10 voting-age residents are immigrants and over 2 in 3 voters are naturalized immigrants.
If we look into precinct data, Miami-Dade didn’t go for Trump just because Hispanics shifted right but stayed blue. Ironically for the Democratic Party, which tries to be the “party of minorities,” it’s the native-born white and black residents who voted Democrat in Miami, while the largely immigrant Hispanic population voted Republican.
These developments challenge the racially deterministic view that demographic changes inevitably favor one political party and support the theory that if candidates make the effort, like Trump did, to appeal to everyone, they can win. For years, many on the Left have operated under the assumption that a diversifying electorate would cement a permanent Democratic majority while some on the Right expressed concerns about immigration turning Republicans into a permanent minority. They were all wrong.
Several factors contribute to this trend among Hispanics. Economic concerns and the border crisis have resonated deeply, prompting many to prioritize policies over traditional party loyalty. In my own community in the New York City area, my Dominican immigrant doorman, a former Clinton and Biden voter, voted for Trump this year. He was particularly frustrated by the right-to-shelter policies that gave illegal immigrants free hotel rooms while he worked two jobs to make ends meet, and he was concerned about rising crime, especially from migrant gangs. Polling from the Manhattan Institute has shown that Hispanics in New York City were the ethnic group most concerned about crime and most supportive of hiring more police officers.
Despite losing this election, Democrats should appreciate this shift toward a politically color-blind society. When political alignment is not predictable based on race, parties are forced to engage with everyone and focus on policies that benefit all of us without discrimination.
Progressives should learn from this election that they aren’t owed a vote based on skin color and they should support more policing and orderly and controlled immigration, while pundits should stop insulting Hispanics as racist or misogynist unless they are addicted to losing elections.
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For conservatives, racial depolarization means understanding that minority voters’ support can be earned through policies that promote economic opportunity, educational choice, and public safety. Republicans need not fear immigration solely for its political effect. As the 2024 election demonstrated, immigrants generally want the same things as native-born Americans: safe communities, well-paid jobs, and a strong country. Concerns about immigration’s impact on crime and economic opportunity are valid, but the evidence shows immigration will not turn America into a socialist nation — if anything, it may help stop socialism.
The 2024 election’s results are a hopeful signal for America’s future. Racial depolarization represents a positive evolution toward a more inclusive, policy-driven political landscape. As we move away from identity-based voting patterns, we get closer to a society where ideas and solutions take precedence over assumptions, creating a stronger, more united America.
Daniel Di Martino (@DanielDiMartino) is a graduate fellow at the Manhattan Institute, the founder of the Dissident Project, and a Ph.D. in economics candidate at Columbia University.
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