A state long known for its steadfast support of Democratic candidates, New Jersey saw tighter margins than expected in the presidential election, fueling speculation about its future political alignment. While Kamala Harris ultimately secured the Garden State’s 14 electoral votes with a narrow lead of 51.5% to Donald Trump’s 46.5%, the results left analysts and insiders raising questions about New Jersey’s role as a Democratic stronghold.

Across the country, Trump staged a remarkable comeback, clinching the presidency by improving upon his 2020 performance in both red and blue states alike. His campaign’s focus on battleground states paid off, with a sweeping victory in critical regions that ultimately brought him to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure the White House. Swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin delivered Trump’s winning numbers, contributing a combined 93 electoral votes.

In particular, his success in Arizona and Nevada, where he led by a five-point margin, underscored a new Republican momentum. States like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, each reporting over 95% of the vote, confirmed Trump as the victor with convincing leads.

Yet, among all the results, it was New Jersey’s shift that caught the eye of political commentators. Although Harris held on to the state, the gap between the two candidates highlighted a potential change in voter preferences, especially in suburban and rural areas where Republicans have shown significant gains. Politico, in its post-election analysis, even suggested that New Jersey might be on the cusp of becoming a swing state—a notion nearly unfathomable just a few election cycles ago.

Traditionally a reliable blue state, New Jersey’s recent election results are causing many to reconsider its political identity. Though Harris ultimately won, Trump’s performance marked a huge shift. He lost by only five points—narrower than any Republican result in the state since George H.W. Bush in 1992. Politico called it “the closest it has in a generation to casting its electoral votes for a Republican president.”

“But few places turned as far to the right as New Jersey, though the bottom-line results don’t make it evident. Republicans and Democrats alike looked agape at the numbers,” Politico explained.

The shift was notable even in Democratic strongholds. In Hudson County, for instance, Trump increased his support from 26% in 2020 to about 35% in 2024. Passaic County, with a large Hispanic population, also leaned Republican, flipping for Trump. Jose Arango, Republican chair of Hudson County, described the political shift as “like a hurricane,” attributing it to working-class frustration with high rent and prices. Democratic strategist Dan Bryan noted that, while the GOP gains in New Jersey were “a symbolic victory,” the close margin should prompt Democrats to take a closer look at “whether this is an individual one-off or if there is something deeper.”

Local issues, including high taxes and housing costs, are impacting voter sentiment. As Chris Russell, a Republican strategist, put it, “People are tired of being told they’re bad people, racists, bigots or Nazis.” Democrats, recognizing this frustration, may need to shift messaging to resonate with working-class voters and communities of color. Politico suggests that if these trends continue, New Jersey could become a battleground state in future elections.

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